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PAGASA officials delivered the latest on El Niño at a press conference held at the PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City last Friday, May 29, 2015.
Dr. Flaviana Hilario, Administrator’s Office OIC said that the weak El Niño in the Tropical Pacific is expected to intensify into a moderate El Niño by August 2015 and will persist until the end of 2015.
With this scenario, 7 provinces are expected to experience droughts by August to December this year. Meanwhile, based on the Drought and Dry Spell outlook for the month of June, 47 provinces affected by drought or dry spell are likely to improve. Most of these areas are located in the western part of the country, which will receive rains when the southwest monsoon prevails. 13 more provinces affected by drought or dry spell are likely to continue next month.
The onset of the rainy season is expected to commence by mid-June 2015 onwards. PAGASA added that 11 to 16 tropical cyclones are forecast to develop or enter Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from June to December 2015.
Typhoons are possible because of the warm air and sea surface temperature. The El Niño event may gradually weaken in the early months of 2016 and likely reach its termination by May 2016.