Weather Today – December 2, 2014 | All eyes on “Hagupit,” the incoming typhoon

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) called for a press conference today, December 2, 2014, due to the approaching Tropical Storm Hagupit. Filipinos are being put on alert on the threat of the strengthening cyclone as it continues to move towards the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Rene Paciente says the storm is still too far to affect the country. As of 2 PM today, it is estimated at 2,325 kilometers east of Mindanao with maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 90 kph. The storm is moving west-northwest at 35 kph.

With favorable atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperature, Hagupit is expected to intensify into a typhoon before entering PAR on Thursday. By then, it will be given the local name “Ruby”.

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

As of today, PAGASA states two possible scenarios based on various forecasting models and tools:

1. Hagupit will landfall in Eastern Visayas.
This case is possible if the High Pressure Area (HPA) above the Philippines does not weaken or make way for the cyclone’s northward movement. Moderate to intense rainfall is expected along its track, bringing possible flash floods in low-lying areas and mountainous areas. Storm surges may also reach up to 3 to 4 meters, equivalent to the height of a one-storey house.

2. Hagupit will not make landfall in the Philippines. Instead, it will recurve towards Southern Japan.
Once the HPA weakens, it will allow the northward movement of the storm and will spare the country from a direct hit. Still, Hagupit will dump moderate to occasional heavy rains along the eastern sections of Luzon and Visayas before it moves farther away from the country.

HOW HAGUPIT WAS FORMED

Last November 30, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) monitored a Low Pressure Area (LPA) near the Chuuk Islands of the Federated States of Micronesia. The following day, the weather disturbance strengthened into a tropical depression due to warm waters and good atmospheric conditions. Six hours later, it intensified into a tropical storm category capable of generating heavy rainfall. It was then named Hagupit, an international name contributed by the Philippines, which means “lash” or “flog.”

The JTWC adds the storm is expected to continue to strengthen in the next 72 hours. Several factors could affect it, including the cold front, a break in the HPA and the monsoon surge, among others.

It is still too early to determine the final track of Tropical Storm Hagupit. However, everyone, especially those in the Philippines and Japan, should continuously monitor weather updates and prepare for the possible outcomes of what seems to be a dangerous typhoon.

FYI: Do not be confused on the names of the approaching storm. Although both issued by the Philippines, Hagupit (the Tagalog word for lash or flog) is the international name used by weather agencies around the globe. Meanwhile, Ruby is the local name that will be used by PAGASA once it enters the PAR.

Credits: PAGASA / NASA / JTWC / Western Pacific Weather