In a press release dated January 18, 2017, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2016 was the hottest year on record. With a global average temperature of 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial period, it surpassed the heat recorded in 2015.According to WMO, it was approximately 0.07 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous year.
A strong El Niño event was assumed as one of the main factors that fuelled high temperatures during the early months of 2016. However, high temperatures prevailed even after the El Niño episode.
Climate change is the long-term shift in weather patterns in a region. This includes changes in precipitation, temperatures, sea levels and many more. It is also a phenomenon brought by the increased emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
According to Dr. Rosa Perez of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate change can be caused either by natural occurrences or human activities. Natural causes include the sun’s activity, volcanic eruptions and other natural events that contribute to the warming of the earth.
But the problem now is that climate change has worsened due to human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, clearing of forests, improper waste management and production of industrialized products.
Among the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide has one of the most ample concentrations in the atmosphere. In September last year, carbon dioxide levels have exceeded the tipping point or the harmful threshold of 440 parts per million (ppm). This figure indicates more catastrophic events like extreme drought, melting of ice, sea level rise and stronger typhoons in the future.
2016 was filled with extreme weather events, leaving socio-economic disruption and losses. The warming of the ocean has contributed to widespread coral bleaching.
Recently, the United Nations reported that three-quarters of the world’s coral reefs are expected to be exposed to terrible heat by 2070. Reefs closer to the equator face annual bleaching that may occur at an earlier frequency, affecting more than 75% of the reefs.
Coral bleaching happens once the micro plants called “zooxanthellae” leave the corals when the water becomes warm because of climate change. This leads to the deprivation of the corals’ food source and color, turning them white or bleached. If the heat persists for a longer period of time, the corals may die. When this happens, it will take decades for reefs to recover or worse, they may not recover at all.
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PH ratification of Paris Agreement underway
“Addressing global warming shall be our top priority, but upon a fair and equitable equation. It must not stymie our industrialization.” These were the words uttered by President Rodrigo Duterte during his 1st State of the Nation Address (SONA) in July 2016.
Earlier this year, Duterte announced that he will be signing the Paris Agreement by July 2017. Before the agreement reaches our President, 33 government agencies and private groups have to submit their respective Certificates of Concurrence first. These certificates will serve as a guarantee that the agencies understand, approve and are willing to cooperate in the implementation of the pact.
Sources:
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Climate Home
Climate Central
PAGASA
Rappler
Science Daily
Each generation has its share of mind-blowing disasters. For our generation, one of the worst devastations ever to hit our country was caused by Typhoon Yolanda. Today, we remember the wrath of this ferocious typhoon that greatly affected the Visayas area exactly three years ago.
Based on the climatological records of PAGASA, tropical cyclones that enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the month of November have a higher chance of hitting the landmass. Proof of this wasYolanda, which originated from the Pacific Ocean, gaining much strength as it headed towards the Philippines.
With the international name Haiyan, Yolanda became one of the world’s most disastrous typhoons, packing winds of up to 235 kilometers per hour and with a gustiness reaching 270 kilometers per hour.
Within a day, six landfall activities were recorded by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). On November 8, 2013, Yolanda hit the following areas:
– Guiuan, Eastern Samar
– Tolosa, Leyte
– Daanbantayan, Cebu
– Bantayan Island, Cebu
– Concepcion, IloIlo
– Busuanga, Palawan
Yolanda exited the PAR on November 9, 2013, leaving a horrific view of Leyte and Samar. Aside from flash floods and landslides, the intense winds of the typhoon triggered storm surges that devoured Leyte, particularly the city of Tacloban. Many Taclobanons said it was like the entire sea had crawled over the land.
At least 6,000 people were reported dead while more than a thousand are still missing. Thousands of families were affected in Regions IV, V, VI, VII, VIII, X, XI and CARAGA. The combined power of water and winds smashed almost 1.2 million houses.
“Super Typhoon”
Days before the first anniversary of Yolanda in 2014, the Typhoon Committee of PAGASA decided to revise the classification of tropical cyclones, adding the category “Super Typhoon” to the list.
PAGASA explained that the revision aims to emphasize the intensity of a tropical cyclone and the threat of its impacts. Using the term “Super Typhoon” will also escalate the sense of urgency and community response in times of an approaching storm.
In October this year, “Lawin” became the first tropical cyclone to be classified as a super typhoon— the first time that PAGASA issued Signal Number 5 as well.
Dissecting Typhoons
Being one of the most vulnerable countries to extreme weather events, we are also in the frontline when it comes to destructive typhoons. To understand this natural hazard, let us familiarize ourselves with the different parts of a typhoon.
Eye
The eye of a typhoon is an area with the lowest air pressure, which can be as much as 15% lower than the pressure outside it. It may vary in shape, which can sometimes be a circle, an ellipse or oval. Its diameter also changes in time, but usually shrinks as a typhoon intensifies.
While many people think the eye is the deadliest part of a typhoon, it is the calmest. In strong tropical cyclones, this area is characterized by light winds and clear skies. For weaker cyclones, the eye is less defined and is usually covered by dense, high and thick clouds.
The eye or the center is helpful for weather forecasters and meteorologists because it serves as the reference point in plotting the typhoon’s location. The formation of an eye is also used as an indicator of the increasing strength of a tropical cyclone.
Eye wall
Surrounding the eye is the eye wall, where the severe weather occurs. It is the innermost ring of convection near the center of the typhoon, packing the fiercest rains and most intense winds.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says this is the zone where surface winds reach their highest speed, bringing the strongest thunderstorm activity.
According to the State Climate Office of North Carolina, the contraction or expansion of the eye wall can cause changes in wind speed and storm strength. As a typhoon grows and changes, it can build concentric eye walls that replace the original eye wall.
Eye Wall Replacement
While most typhoons have a single eye wall, powerful and mature typhoons acquire double eye wall structures. Typhoons with double eye walls often undergo a process called “eye wall replacement cycle”. This occurs when a new eye wall develops and replaces an existing one.
According to the Hong Kong Observatory, this cycle begins with a concentrated ring of convection that develops outside the eye wall. It will then circulate inward, leading to a double-eye wall structure. The inner eye wall dissipates while the other intensifies and moves inward.
Spiral Rain Bands
Spiral rain bands are found outside the eye wall. NOAA defines rain bands as long, arching bands of clouds and thunderstorms that spiral out of the eye wall. Dense bursts of rain and winds are often associated with these bands. Also referred to as “buntot ng bagyo”, rain bands form the outermost fringes of the typhoon structure.
Sources:
PAGASA
NOAA
NCSU
Hong Kong Observatory
American Meteorological Society
World Meteorological Organization
New studies from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) researchers showed that climate change does not only affect the severity or amount of rain but also the precipitation patterns.
According to Al Gore, the founder of the Climate Reality Project, since warmer air holds more moisture, rising global temperatures also contribute to the changes in rain patterns, including rain’s occurrence, duration and distribution. Gore also stated that global water vapor increases by 7% for every degree centigrade of warming.
Climate change can affect two types of rain – stratiform and convective. Convective rain, which occurs more frequently, is sudden, intense and local. Meanwhile, the stratiform type is lighter and can fall over a larger area for a longer time.
Isotopes as clues
In June 2016, hydrology specialist Pradeep Aggarwal and his co-authors announced that the oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in rain samples provided data on the ratio of these two rain types.
Isotopes are atoms of the same element that have different numbers of neutrons that result to different atomic weights. The condensation and evaporation of water affect the ratio of heavy to light isotopes.
Observing and understanding how the water cycle responds to climate change is difficult and critical. These findings could also contribute to a better understanding of how climate change affects rainfall patterns, which could later help in adaptation and precipitation models in the future.
Rainfall and Climate Change
As temperatures rise, air becomes warmer. Hence, more moisture evaporates from land and water into the atmosphere. More moisture in the air means more precipitation and heavy downpour.
The problem is that extra rain is not evenly distributed throughout the globe. Because of the shifting air and ocean currents brought by climate change, some countries may receive more or less precipitation than others. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the world is already getting more rain and snow than it did a century ago.
Looming La Niña
PAGASA and other international meteorological agencies confirmed a 55 to 60% probability of La Niña development in the last quarter of 2016. La Niña is the unusual cooling of ocean temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
Because of this weather phenomenon, more active rainfall activity is expected in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines. PAGASA said that after the sweltering dry months, we are now anticipating slightly cooler and wetter months ahead.
Rising temperatures triggered by climate change and the previous El Niño episode may begin to decelerate due to La Niña. According to the University of New South Wale’s Climate Change Research Center, a rise in global temperatures may still occur, but it won’t be as rapid as what had been observed last year.
Sources:
PAGASA
US Climate Prediction Center
International Atomic Energy Agency
University of New South Wale’s Climate Change Research Center
US Environmental Protection Agency
In line with Tropical Cyclone Week, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) conducted a La Niña Forum last June 15, 2016. This year’s theme, Tag- baha at Tag-bagyo, Handa na Tayo!, aims to prepare the public for the impacts of the increasing probability of La Niña.
La Niña is defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as a phenomenon characterized by the unusually low sea surface temperatures or cooling of the ocean in the Equatorial Pacific. As the opposite of El Niño, La Niña will bring more rains, and moderate to strong tropical cyclone activities.
According to the Chief of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Mr. Anthony Lucero, El Niño is still in its decaying stage. It continues to weaken and is more likely to return to neutral condition by the end of June or July.
Though El Niño is currently weakening, Lucero explained that most parts of the country may still feel its impact. Many provinces may still experience below-normal rainfall until next month.
Majority of climate models show a possible development of La Niña during the second half of 2016. Despite this forecast, Lucero said there will be less tropical cyclones this year. “Talagang magkukulang tayo ng bagyo ngayon… pero nangyari na ito noon, walang unusual o abnormal dito.” (We will experience less tropical cyclones, but this has already happened before. Nothing unusual or abnormal about it.)
Annually, the average number of tropical cyclones that enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) is 19 to 21. We’ve already covered half of 2016, yet there is still no sign of a tropical cyclone. According to PAGASA, 8 to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to enter or develop within the boundary from June to November, and possibly a maximum of 16 until December.
Meanwhile, in a separate interview with PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, he explained that after a strong El Niño episode, our country is likely to experience less number of tropical cyclones. This happened in 1972-1973, wherein we had only 12 tropical cyclones, and 11 tropical cyclones in 1997-1998.
New PAGASA Services
In preparation for the flood and cyclone season, PAGASA continues to upgrade their services. A book entitled, “Patnubay sa Weder Forkasting” was launched this week. This aims not only to simplify technical terms, but also to familiarize everyone with weather terms in other local languages, such as Ilokano and Bikolano.
The creation of the book was headed by the Komisyon sa Wikang Filipino, in close coordination with the weather bureau. Being the first-ever Filipino weather dictionary, it serves as a response to President Noynoy Aquino’s appeal for a more understandable and simplified way of crafting weather forecasts.
Here are some of the commonly used words included in the dictionary:
PAGASA also introduced an updated version of their mobile application, which includes weather information and flood alerts.
This app is a product of the collaboration between PAGASA and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Now available for android phones, it can be downloaded through Google Play.
Meanwhile, reading materials, which include information about La Niña, Rainfall Warning System and the Tropical Cyclone Warning System (formerly known as Public Storm Warning Signal), were also launched at the forum. This is part of the Be Sure Project which was successfully made through the help of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
The online community is abuzz after a Miss Earth Philippines contestant shared her insights in the Q & A portion of the beauty pageant.
During the coronation night last June 11, candidates were each given 30 seconds to elaborate on trending topics they had picked from a basket.
Miss Zamboanga, Bellatrix Tran, drew #ElNiñoLaNiña, two weather-related events that are serious global threats.
This was Tan’s answer: “El Niño is what we are facing right now. If we do simple things like planting trees, then we will not experience drought. So if we start now, we will achieve La Niña.” Unfortunately, her last line elicited laughter from the audience and judges.
https://twitter.com/krizzy_kalerqui/status/741797696269225985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
What should have been her answer:
Everyone should read up on El Niño, a climatic condition wherein an unusual increase in sea surface temperature or warming of the ocean is observed. It mostly affects the agricultural sector due to its effects of reduced rainfall and warmer weather.
In the Philippines, PAGASA confirmed the start of the El Niño phenomenon last May 2015. To date, El Niño is at its decaying stage but has left damages worth P7 billion based on the records of the Department of Agriculture from January to May 2016.
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) defines La Niña as a phenomenon characterized by unusually low sea surface temperatures or the cooling of the ocean in the Equatorial Pacific. Its effects may include moderate to strong monsoon activity, moderate to strong tropical cyclones, above-normal rains or above -normal temperatures. A La Niña episode does not always follow an El Niño, but it may happen especially if the latter is a strong one.
As of posting, there is no confirmed occurrence of La Niña, but there is a 50% chance that it will develop in the coming months, according to PAGASA.
Miss Philippines Earth aims to showcase not just nature’s beauty, but to also raise awareness on social concerns and environmental issues, including weather phenomena.
So remember that whether you’re planning to join a beauty contest or not, remember that it pays to be equipped with knowledge on social issues, especially those that are directly affecting our country.