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At 10:00 AM today, the center of the typhoon Hagupit was estimated at 1,543 kilometers east of Davao City. Packing winds of 140 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 170 kilometers per hour, it maintains its velocity moving west-northwest at 30 kilometers per hour.

If it maintains its speed and direction, it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, Thursday, and will be given the local name “Ruby”. Upon entering the PAR, the typhoon will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas.

In a press briefing held earlier today at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, two scenarios are still expected to happen. However, most meteorological models show a higher chance of landfall activity.

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PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said the first possible outcome is the typhoon making landfall over Eastern Visayas, bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains. Aside from possible flash floods and landslides, storm surges of up to 3 to 4 meters could also occur.

Source: PAGASA
Source: PAGASA

On the other hand, the second scenario shows that if the high pressure area (HPA) weakens, it will give way for Hagupit to re-curve away from the country, leading to Japan. Everyone is advised to monitor updates regarding the approaching typhoon.

No direct effect yet

Hagupit is still far to directly affect the country. However according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar, the outer cloud band of the typhoon is gradually reaching PAR, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas.

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to prevail over Nothern and Central Luzon. Cagayan Valley will have cloudy skies with light rains while the regions of Cordillera, Ilocos and Central Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Gale warning includes the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing over the seaboards of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela and Aurora.

“Hagupit” compared to previous typhoons

Based on the climatological records of PAGASA, Typhoon Camilla (1949), Typhoon Aning (1966) and Typhoon Seniang (2006) have almost the same location where Hagupit would originate as it enters the PAR.

Source: PAGASA
Source: PAGASA

Natural disasters, particularly typhoons, have earned special attention and mention throughout our nation’s history because of the devastation they leave behind, causing immense losses to infrastructure, agriculture and human lives.

This year alone, several typhoons have left their mark on the public consciousness, including Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (local name: Mario), which caused severe flooding in Greater Luzon, including Metro Manila, affecting more than 118 thousand families.

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (local name: Mario) Photo credit: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (local name: Mario)
Photo credit: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Meanwhile, Typhoon Rammasun (local name:Glenda) crossed Southern Luzon in July with maximum winds of 150 kilometers per hour. It made its landfall in Albay, claiming more than one billion pesos worth of infrastructure and more than six billion pesos worth of agricultural products and facilities.

Typhoon Rammasun (local name: Glenda) Photo credit: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Typhoon Rammasun (local name: Glenda)
Photo credit: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Luckily in October, when Super Typhoon Vongfong (local name: Ompong), tagged as the strongest typhoon that entered Philippine Area of Responsibility this year, packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour, it kept its distance from the country as it moved outside our boundary. Though Vongfong did not do damage to the Philippines, Japan was not able to evade the rage of the super typhoon. 31 people were injured, 90,000 households in Okinawa had to evacuate, and more than 400 flights were cancelled. It also knocked out power supply in Okinawa.

Super Typhoon Vongfong (local name: Ompong) Photo credit: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Super Typhoon Vongfong (local name: Ompong)
Photo credit: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

It seems that the names of the tropical cyclones are as unique as their characteristics and effects on the areas they have gone through. In the Philippines, PAGASA has a ready list of Filipino names for tropical cyclones.

Just as local names are important for easy communication among PAGASA, the media and the public, so are international names since these weather disturbances can affect more than one country. Through constant correspondence with other nations, we can gauge the cyclone’s track and projected effects—an important tool in increasing preparedness on both national and community levels.

How the naming process began

The areas where tropical cyclones are formed are divided into seven basins: North Atlantic Ocean, Northeastern and Northwestern Pacific Ocean (where the Philippines is located), Southwestern and Southeastern Indian Ocean, North Indian Ocean and Southwest Pacific Ocean.

Photo credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Photo credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Australian forecaster Clement Wragge introduced the use of proper names in naming cyclones in the late 19th century. When the Australian national government failed to establish the federal weather bureau and appoint Wragge as director, the forecaster took matters in his own hands and started naming cyclones after political figures whom he disliked and described as “causing great distress and wandering aimlessly about the Pacific.”

It took 40 years before the idea inspired George Stewart, a junior meteorologist in the United States to name Pacific tropical storms after his former girlfriends in his 1941 novel “Storm.”

It was in 1945 when the US armed services formally embraced the practice of using women’s names for typhoons in the Western Pacific. Eight years later, the US Weather Bureau finally adopted the use of women’s names for cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin. It was in 1979 when men’s names were used.

Meanwhile, cyclones in the Southwest Indian Ocean started using names during the 1960s, while the North Indian Ocean cyclones were formally named in 2006.

According to the Weather Philippines Foundation, a new list of Asian names was contributed by all member nations of the World Meteorological Organization‘s (WMO) Typhoon Committee in January 1, 2000. These names are allocated to developing tropical storms by the Tokyo Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and are arranged in alphabetical order of contributing countries. The majority of names includes flowers, animals, birds, trees, food and adjectives.

Currently, the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Typhoon Committee (ESCAP/WMO), which promotes the order and implementation of procedures required for minimizing the losses caused by typhoons, has 14 members: Cambodia; China; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Hong Kong, China; Japan; Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Macao, China; Malaysia; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and the United States of America.

Regardless of the year, international names are used per column. Below are the lists of names for developing tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin within a six-year time frame.

Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

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Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Retiring of Names

Tropical cyclone names are retired if they have caused significant damage and casualties in an area. A new list of names is discussed during the annual meeting of the WMO’s regional committee.

Sources: Weather Philippines Foundation | PAGASA | JMA | ESCAP/WMO | NOAA | NASA | Official Gazette of the Philippines | Japan NHK

Typhoon Vongfong, locally named Ompong, has been classified under Category 5: Super Typhoon status by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Since Typhoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda, Ompong is the strongest tropical cyclone to approach Asia.

In comparison, Typhoon Yolanda, which remains the strongest tropical cyclone that recently battered the country in recent history (2013), reached maximum sustained winds of 235 kilometers per hour while Ompong’s peak is at 215 kilometers per hour.

Image from http://earth.nullschool.net/
Image from http://earth.nullschool.net/

In the Philippines, no Public Storm Warning Signal has been raised as the typhoon has no direct effect on the country, aside from enhancing the Northeasterly wind flow, bringing rough to very rough sea conditions in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.

Even while maintaining its impressive maximum sustained winds for days and going nowhere near the Philippine landmass after spending hours over the sea, Ompong is not intensifying because according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio, cold and dry air from the higher latitudes are beginning to join in the cyclone’s circulation. Dry air is not conducive to cyclones as weather disturbances feed off warm and moist air to intensify.

Furthermore, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) states that tropical cyclones are strongest when in the tropics. As they move towards the subtropical region and the temperate zone, they start to gradually weaken.

Why Ompong is slow-moving

Aurelio says there are two High Pressure Areas (HPAs) on each side of the typhoon, its ridge hampering its northward movement. When the extension of the anti-cyclone recedes, Ompong will continue its sail towards Japan.

At 13 kilometers per hour moving northward, Bagyong ‘Ompong’ is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Saturday.

Image from PAGASA Weather Bulletin No.5 Typhoon Ompong
Image from PAGASA Weather Bulletin No.7 Typhoon Ompong

Possible Scenarios

Currently, over open water, Ompong fails to have a major impact on the Philippines.

Over Taiwan, its southern portions, which are included in the Philippine Area of Responsibility, might experience strong winds and cloudy skies with light to moderate rains, Aurelio says.

However, Japan is another matter. While recovering from the recent cyclone Phanphone that slammed rains on Central Japan, Super Typhoon Vongfong threatens to make landfall in Japan in the following days.

According to JTWC, based on the current forecast track of Vongfong, the typhoon is moving near or over mainland Japan, which include Tokyo and other major cities. However, the typhoon may weaken considerably as it moves closer and begins to affect the country this weekend until early next week.

The strong winds of Vongfong might also batter Ryukyu Island, including Okinawa this weekend. Come Monday, effects will reach Kyushu, Shikoku and later in Honshu, including Tokyo and Osaka.

Typhoon Ompong is the 15th tropical cyclone this year, and the second this October.

The name Vongfong was contributed by Macau, China, which means wasp or putakti in Tagalog.

It has been used three times in tropical storm category in 2002 and 2008, and in typhoon category this year.

NASA Astronaut G. Reid Wiseman captured the amazing photo of Typhoon #OmpongPH (international name #Vongfong) from the International Space Station.
NASA Astronaut G. Reid Wiseman captured the amazing photo of Typhoon #OmpongPH (international name #Vongfong) from the International Space Station.

Sources: JMA, JTWC, PAGASA

 

Typhoon Ompong with international name Vongfong is tagged as the strongest typhoon in the world for 2014.

According to Meteorologist Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, “Vongfong is the strongest tropical cyclone we’ve had all year anywhere on Earth,” categorized as a super typhoon by the US Naval Observatory’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Meanwhile the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) described its intensity from very strong to violent, with maximum winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, moving towards Japan at 9 kilometers per hour.

The reason for its decrease in speed is caused by the intensity of rains it brings, and the presence of the High Pressure Area (HPA) in Japan. Still, the typhoon’s destructive winds and inundating rains are expected to hit Mainland Japan.

PH safe from Ompong

But the good news is PAGASA assured that the super typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country, and is expected to be outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday morning.

However, it may intensify winds from the northwest and southwest, creating wind convergence over Mindanao, where the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is located, which has been bringing rains over that area. Converging winds from different paths automatically create clouds that often lead to thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening. This weather system may bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains.

Meanwhile, Cagayan Valley and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) will also experience light to moderate rains brought by northeast monsoon or the amihan.

Transition Period

During this period, the transition of winds from southwest to northeast is still happening. This is the reason why PAGASA has yet to officially declare the amihan season, associated with dry and cold air, because of the lingering presence of the weak southwest monsoon or habagat, associated with humid and warm air.

MTSAT Image from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
MTSAT Image from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
MTSAT Image from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
MTSAT Image from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
MTSAT Image from Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
MTSAT Image from Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Sources: PAGASA | JTWC | JMA | NOAA | AccuWeather.com