The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) remains as the dominant weather system today. This is a region in the atmosphere where winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet, resulting to cloud formation.
The axis of ITCZ has oscillated, affecting Visayas and Mindanao. The clouds due to ITCZ will dump rains over Mindanao, Western and Central Visayas, and Palawan.
The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, will enjoy good weather today. However, thunderstorms are frequent this rainy season so expect isolated rain showers. In turn, PAGASA will issue thunderstorm warnings on social media accounts.
What is in for August?
The average number of tropical cyclones for August is between 3 to 4, but with the effect of the ongoing moderate El Niño phenomenon, an average of 2 to 4 cyclones are expected to affect, or at least enter the Philippine boundary.
El Niño, as defined by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is “a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive surface temperature departure from normal in the Niño region 3.4 greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C, averaged over three consecutive months”. El Niño occurs when there is a significant rise in sea surface temperature.
Based on the forecast track of PAGASA, 2 out of 4 cyclones are expected to cross Northern Luzon this month of August before leaving PAR. Meanwhile, there will be chances that cyclones will re-curve and will not make any landfall. However, this could intensify the southwest monsoon, which will result to heavy rain showers.
After a rainy July, what’s in store for August? Here’s an overview on what to expect this month.
1. August is going to be wet.
If you’ve grown tired of rainy weather, then we regret being the bearer of bad news. The Southwest Monsoon, locally known as habagat, is active this month, bringing rainy days to Luzon, particularly in its western section that includes Zambales, Bataan and Metro Manila. According to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Northern and Central Luzon normally experience the highest rainfall this month.
2. The stormy season isn’t over yet.
The active ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is the breeding ground for the low pressure area and tropical cyclones, will still be present.
The ITCZ usually affects Visayas or Mindanao but it could also reach Luzon, forming a monsoon trough, which is also referred to as the convergence of winds, possibly bringing rains and thunderstorms.
3. Tropical Cyclones are a hit-and-miss affair.
For the month of August, the average number of tropical cyclones or bagyo is three or four. Tropical cyclones during this month normally move west-northwest. Some tropical cyclones are expected to hit or cross landmass, usually traversing the areas of Northern and Central Luzon. However, there are instances that tropical cyclones re-curve or change its track, preventing it from landfall activity. Last year, in August 2013, four tropical cyclones entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Among these, only one (Typhoon LABUYO) made landfall.
SOURCE: PAGASA