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As we are now on our third week of the month, we haven’t had weather disturbances yet. But according to PAGASA, Typhoon In-fa will be heading towards our boundary this Monday. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Benison Estareja, In-fa might gain more strength as its moves towards west-northwest with a speed of 20 kphr. In-fa may under Typhoon category when it hits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this Sunday or Monday. As of now, it was last located at 2,545 kilometers east of Mindanao with maximum winds of 130 kphr and gustiness up to 160 kph.
 
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Meanwhile, the Intertropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ remains to be the dominant weather system, bringing light to moderate rains over Eastern Visayas and the regions of Caraga and Davao. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience good weather conditions with a chance of localized thunderstorms.

The Ridge of High Pressure Area continues to affect Luzon. This weather system is associated with fair weather conditions and high temperatures.

Today, the Philippines will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.

Temperatures may reach up to 35 degrees Celsius with the heat index forecast showing 40.2 degrees Celsius in Metro Manila.

To counter the heat while looking your best, wearing light-weight and light colored clothing is recommended. Sunglasses don’t only look trendy; they also protect your eyes from the glare. Umbrellas with bright colors help shade you from the sun’s rays while giving off happy summer vibes.

In other news, PAGASA releases the revised classification of tropical cyclones effective May 01, 2015.

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Accordingly, the public storm warning signal system of the agency was also modified.

Typhoon Dolphin is no longer expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, the said weather disturbance is set to recurve as the presence of the High Pressure Area above the Philippines hinders its supposed entry into the country’s eastern boundary.

Source: DOST-PAGASA
Source: DOST-PAGASA

Today, the Ridge of High Pressure Area reaching Luzon brings partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms usually occurring in the afternoon or evening. The same weather condition is expected to persist this weekend.

Meanwhile, the El Nino phenomenon is expected to persist in the northern hemisphere until the end of 2015. Based on the latest data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the sea surface temperature anomaly continues in the equatorial Pacific.

In the Philippines, the persistence of the said phenomenon will incur below normal rainfall, above normal temperatures and weak tropical cyclone activity.

Lashing with heavy winds and moderate to intense rains, Dodong’s eye passed over Pananapan Point in Sta. Ana, Cagayan 4:45 this afternoon.

The typhoon made landfall, bearing maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph. Once it made contact with the land, it slowed down a bit, moving north northwest at 17 kph.

Based on PAGASA’s latest weather bulletin issued at 5 o’clock in the afternoon, here are the areas under public storm warning signals:

psws

In a press briefing held late afternoon in PAGASA, State Meteorologist Aldczar Aurelio said that after Cagayan, Dodong will head towards the Batanes area in the following hours.

If it maintains its current speed and direction, the typhoon is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday morning and will continue to move towards Southern Japan.

Source: DOST-PAGASA
Source: DOST-PAGASA

As for the expected weather conditions in the country tonight, the areas under signal #4 will continue to experience a stormy weather due to the typhoon. The provinces under signal #3 can expect rains with gusty winds. On the other hand, areas under signal #1 and #2 will have light to moderate rain showers. The rest of the country can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with localized thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, PAGASA releases a new gale warning over the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon. These coastal areas will experience strong to gale force winds and rough to very rough sea conditions generated by Typhoon Dodong. All fishermen are advised against sea travel in the following hours.

gale

In other news, the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) released an advisory today pertaining to the highly susceptible barangays in Sta. Ana, Baggao and Gonzaga in Cagayan.

Here is the list:

sta ana

baggao

gonzaga

PAGASA raised public storm warning signal #1 in Luzon and Visayas today as Typhoon Dodong continues to move closer to the Philippine landmass.

These areas will experience winds of up to 30 to 60 kph in at least a day and a half. Winds this strong may pose light damage to medium to low risk structures, and slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures.

State Meteorologist Alvin Pura added that Metro Manila may not be included in the signal warning this weekend unless Dodong’s track goes lower than expected.

The typhoon currently packs 150 kph maximum sustained winds near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph. Pura said though there is a possibility of further intensification in the following hours, Dodong will not reach Super Typhoon status. However, once it hits land, a decrease in wind strength is expected before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The cyclone also slowed down a bit this morning, still moving west northwest now at 17 kph.

In the current forecast track, Pura states that Dodong is expected to move nearer to Bicol Region within 24 hours. It will also skirt the eastern section of Central Luzon before making landfall over the Isabela-Cagayan area Sunday morning. If it maintains its current speed and direction, the typhoon is expected to exit PAR late Monday or early Tuesday.

As for the weather today, based on PAGASA’s latest weather forecast, the areas under Signal #1 will experience rains with gusty winds. On the other hand, a rainy weather condition will also be experienced in Central Visayas, the rest of Eastern Visayas, and over the regions of CARAGA, Davao and Northern Mindanao. The rest of the country including will Metro Manila can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorm in the following hours.

Meanwhile, areas in the northern Luzon area currently experiencing dry spell will benefit from the rains the typhoon will bring. However, once Dodong passes, the area will continue to experience high temperatures.

UPDATED AS OF 8:56AM (PST) — Originally 10 kph shy of being a Super Typhoon by PAGASA standards, Chedeng further weakened to tropical depression category this morning.

From the original 215 kph wind strength, it now packs only 55 kph near the center, allowing PAGASA to lower Public Storm Warning Signals (PSWS) except in the provinces of Isabela, Aurora, Quirino and Polillo Island, which are still under PSWS #1 today. These areas will have occasional rains with gusty winds within at least 36 hours.

Aside from being downgraded into a tropical depression, Chedeng also remained stationary. In fact, PAGASA states it is expected to remain almost stationary in the next 6 hours.

State Meteorologist Samuel Duran says as of 8 o’clock this morning, Chedeng has already made landfall in the vicinity of Dinapigue, Isable. With unfavorable conditions, now including land interaction, Chedeng has a high chance of weakening into a Low Pressure Area instead of hitting the land.

The constant factors of its continued weakening and becoming almost stationary include two High Pressure Areas north and west of the country, as well as a strong vertical wind shear. These made the cyclone unable to retain and gain moisture to sustain its strength and continue its projected track.

With this, the threat of storm surge is removed. However, gale warning is up over the northern seaboards of Luzon. and the eastern seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon as Chedeng will still generate rough to very rough sea conditions. Fisherfolk, especially in small seacraft, are then advised not to venture out due to risky sea travel especially.

EASTER SUNDAY WEATHER

Today, areas under PSWS #1 will experience occasional rains and gusty winds due to Chedeng. The Bicol Region and Samar provinces can expect a rainy Sunday as Metro Manila and the remaining parts of the country may experience a fair weather condition.

Everyone is advised to bring umbrellas for sun protection and possible thunderstorms later in the day. Also, continue monitoring weather updates thru Panahon TV social media accounts.

As of 5PM, April 02, 2015

Despite the cyclone’s weakening, PAGASA reminds the public to brace itself for the possible effects of Typhoon Chedeng this weekend.

At 4 PM today, the eye of the typhoon was estimated at 845 kms. east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Packing winds of 140 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph, Chedeng maintains its typhoon category. However, PAGASA claims it has a higher chance of further weakening as it moves closer to the archipelago. State Meteorologist Aldczar Aurelio says there is a possibility that Chedeng may be downgraded to tropical storm category before hitting the landmass.

One such factor of the typhoon’s weakening is the strong vertical wind shear or the wind strength along the cyclone. Aurelio likened it to a humming top or ‘trumpo’ where winds differ in the bottom and top areas of the cyclone. Chedeng may also weaken due to land interaction, especially in mountainous areas that may help break the cyclone’s wind formation.

In the latest run of the various weather forecasting models of the weather bureau, here’s what we can expect:

April 5 – Sunday
Morning: Chedeng to make landfall over the Aurora-Isabela area.
Evening: Chedeng to leave the landmass via Ilocos Sur.

April 6 – Monday
Morning: Chedeng to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Based on PAGASA’s latest weather bulletin, Public Storm Warning Signal number 1 is raised over Isabela, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Island, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur.

These areas may still be experiencing good weather conditions now, but the effects of Chedeng may be felt in at least 36 hours, or in a day and a half.

PAGASA also mentions the possibility of hoisting the same warning signal over Cagayan, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya and the Cordillera Administrative Region in the next 12 hours as Chedeng moves closer to Eastern Luzon.

As of 5PM, April 02, 2015

In a press briefing held in PAGASA this afternoon, Aurelio explains that although the country is experiencing good weather today, rains with occasional gusty winds can be expected by late Saturday, escalating to stormy weather, particularly over the Central-Northern Luzon area come Sunday.

In the Greater Metro Manila Area, there is a poor chance of having a storm warning signal raised. However, expect occasional rains and gusty winds as Chedeng crosses the land. The remaining parts of the country, on the other hand, can expect warm and humid weather, Aurelio added.

As Chedeng threatens the country, officials remind the residents living in areas under signal #1 to be prepared against possible flash floods and landslides. Storm surges of up to 2 metes are also possible over the eastern coast of Aurora, Quezon and Isabela. Even fisherfolk over the eastern seaboard of Bicol Region and Visayas are advised against sea travel due to the rough to very rough sea conditions generated by Chedeng.

Surrounded by bodies of water, the Philippines sits astride the typhoon belt. Each year, an average of 19 to 20 tropical cyclones or bagyo enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), with 8 to 9 of these crossing the landmass.

In 2014, 19 tropical cyclones were recorded to have entered PAR. Two of them were experienced before the year ended, making their respective landfalls in the Visayas and Mindanao areas.

Bagyong Ruby

Source: PAGASA
Source: PAGASA

Since its development from a low pressure area on the last day of November, major weather agencies across the globe closely monitored the potentially dangerous typhoon, later given the international name Hagupit.

Filipinos were alerted against the threat of the approaching cyclone as early as December 2, even if Hagupit was still too far to affect the country.

Entering PAR on December 4, the cyclone was locally named Ruby. Two possible scenarios were presented: for it to 1) make landfall and 2) recurve. Despite hoping for the latter, Ruby crossed the archipelago, hitting the land five times before exiting PAR by the evening of December 10.

Ruby Landfall

During its course on land, Ruby left 18 dead and 916 injured. Over 5 billion pesos in damages to agriculture and infrastructure were also reported.

With the catastrophe endured by Filipinos in November 2013 caused by bagyong Yolanda, the Philippines may have learned its lesson. A lot of it, it seems, were applied during the preparations for Ruby.

No less than President Benigno Aquino III ensured that each agency’s preparations were already in place before Ruby’s arrival. This included quizzing his cabinet secretaries on their efforts in preparation for Ruby, to avoid a repeat of the Yolanda situation. A meeting in Camp Aguinaldo was held to mitigate the impact of Ruby in the following days.

Agencies also layman-ized the terms and phrases used in order to make sure everyone understood and acted accordingly. Continuous dissemination of weather bulletins, the initiation of pre-emptive evacuation, and other precautionary measures were undertaken as early as December 2 when the typhoon was still outside the PAR.

BAGYONG SENIANG

Right after Christmas up until New Year’s, PAGASA weather forecasters dutifully monitored the last tropical cyclone of the year— Seniang.

Dumping heavy rains that caused widespread flooding and landslides, among others, Seniang made landfall four times before leaving the PAR on the 2nd of January.

Seninag Landfalls

Aside from the 65 deaths, 41 injuries and 7 missing persons, Seniang also caused damages of more than 758 million pesos as of press time.

With the death toll significantly higher compared to Ruby, criticisms were thrown at the government for “falling short in its preparations” for the onslaught of bagyong Seniang. However, Malacañang refuted these claims saying that the government’s preparations and response were comprehensive. Citing the latest report from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, Presidential Communications Operations Office Secretary Sonny Coloma stated that many of the casualties came from isolated cases of landslide and flashflood incidents, in areas that were not “designated as danger zones.”

LESSONS LEARNED

A weather disturbance often takes a few days before it develops into something massive. State meteorologists monitor this through weather satellites, enabling them to alert the public and give them ample time to prepare before a bagyo strikes.

Over the years, the Filipinos have endured the countless devastating effects of cyclones with rising death tolls and damages headlining the news. Though we can’t stop a cyclone from forming, we can minimize its disastrous impact. By focusing on disaster mitigation and preparedness, we help curb the overwhelming consequences of a calamity.

Arm yourself with some weather wisdom.

What is a thunderstorm? A low pressure area? The most dangerous part of a bagyo? (The eye wall, fyi.) Knowing these relevant weather terms help us understand forecasts better, which help us prepare for the coming weather disturbances.

Monitor weather updates.

Nowadays, information comes easily through various platforms—the television, radio, and the Internet. With real-time updates and lead-time forecasts, disaster preparedness is within our reach.

Have an emergency kit.

We can’t stress this enough. Emergency kits save lives. Prepare emergency kits ahead of time and store them in accessible areas so you can easily find them when the need arises.

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Make emergency plans with your family.

When disaster strikes, family members may get separated. Make sure the whole family is prepared and informed on crucial information, such as emergency exits, meet-up points, and ways to contact each other. In line with this, it’s also important to know the emergency hotlines in your area.

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Identify the threats on your property.

Is your area prone to flooding? Can a storm surge reach your house? Is your area mountainous and prone to landslides? If you are living in a hazard-prone area, evacuate as early as possible. Otherwise, stay inside the house and keep calm.

Store enough food and water.

The movements of tropical cyclones are not definite. Some move speedily; others start fast then slow down later on. Business operations may take time to resume after a disaster so better make sure your supplies will last for a few days.

Heed the advice of local authorities.

If you’re asked to evacuate, do so and be sure to follow instructions. Before leaving, turn off all utilities and secure your home. After the disaster has passed, return home only when officials have deemed it safe.

Are you ready for future disasters? Be informed, prepared, and safe! See below the names that will be used for tropical cyclones that will enter the PAR this 2015

Bagyo

MTSAT Image from PAGASA
MTSAT Image from PAGASA

Before departing from the Philippine boundary, Ruby has intensified into Tropical Storm category with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of about 80 kph. PAGASA weather forecaster Benison Estareja said that this because Ruby is within the vicinity of the West Philippines Sea–it’s increase in intensity due to the moisture it had gathered from the ocean.

Tropical storm Ruby was last located at 505 kilometers west southwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro, moving at a speed of 20 kph. If it maintains its velocity, Ruby will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight according to PAGASA weather forecaster Aldczar Aurelio. Because of its distance, it will have no direct effect on any part of the country, confirmed Estareja.

Cold Weather awaits

The northeast monsoon has found its way again to Northern Luzon. Cold weather with lights rains will be experienced mostly in Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Region.
Baguio City’s temperature will range from 15 to 23 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, with the intrusion of winds from the east, fair weather is expected over Metro Manila and the rest of the country. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers are possible in the afternoon or evening.

Top 3 places with highest amount of rainfall

During the passage of Ruby, areas in Southern Luzon has recorded the highest amount of rainfall.

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