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On the last day of this year, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astonomical Services Administration (PAGASA) continues to monitorTropical Storm Seniang with international name Jangmi. It was locatedat 245 kilometers south southeast of Cuyo, Palawan at 9:00 AM today.
It has weakened into a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour.

With its continuous movement in a west-southwest direction at 13 kilometers per hour, Seniang is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday, January 2, 2015.

Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 is up over Palawan where winds of 30 to 60 kilometers per hour are expected. Residents are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The combined effect of the northeast monsoon or amihan and the winds
associated with Seniang will bring rough to very rough sea conditions in the seaboards of Northern, Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are still prohibited from venturing out into the mentioned seas.

Palawan will experience rains with gusty winds. Cloudy skies will dump light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Visayas, Bicol Region and the provinces of Quezon, Mindoro and Marinduque. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will experience light rains, while Mindanao will have improved weather. Still, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms are expected.

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PAGASA issues special weather outlook for New Year

Based on the outlook, rains will continue on the first day of 2015. Seniang may bring rains with gusty winds over Palawan, while the Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Western Visayas and the provinces of Mindoro, Marinduque and Romblon will have cloudy skies with light to moderate
rain showers and thunderstorms. Metro Manila and Central Luzon will be cloudy with light rains and the rest of the country will have a generally fair weather aside from the isolated cases of rain showers or thunderstorms.

Changes may still occur depending on the weather systems that will prevail within the PAR. All are advised to monitor updates.

OUTLOOK

BAGY0_LIST2014

As we begin the countdown to ending another year, we take a look at the weather events that made 2014 memorable, weather-wise.

Situation: Tropical Cyclones

This year, a total of 19 tropical cyclones entered the PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility).

The first was Agaton, which made its entry last January 17. Though it was identified as a Tropical Depression, the lowest category for cyclones, Agaton caused severe flooding in Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao and the CARAGA region.

According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), 244,344 families were affected in more than a thousand villages in 16 provinces. There were at least 1,147 houses destroyed and more than one thousand partially damaged. All in all, damages in infrastructure and agriculture were estimated at more than 500 million pesos.

Trending Typhoons

From the 19 tropical cyclones that entered PAR, 10 were under the Typhoon category with wind speeds of 118 to 220 kilometers per hour.

1. Domeng
2. Florita
3. Glenda
4. Henry
5. Jose
6. Luis
7. Paeng
8. Neneng
9. 0mpong
10. Ruby

From these 10 typhoons, Ompong and Ruby could be categorized as Super Typhoons.

Entering PAR on October 7 and making its exit on October 11, Ompong, with international name Vongfong, was classified by the U.S Joint Typhoon Warning Center as a Category 5 Super Typhoon.

Packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong—thankfully— did not hit the country as it re-curved towards Mainland Japan.

Related articles: Gazing into the Eye of 2014’s Strongest Typhoon
Strongest Typhoon for 2014 still inside PH

vongfong

But Typhoon Ruby was totally different story. With the fitting “Hagupit” as its international name, Ruby entered the country’s boundary on December 3 and made its way out on December 11. With maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, Ompong made five landfalls.

LANDFALL_RUBY

First landfall: Dolores, Eastern Samar
Second landfall: Cataingan, Masbate
Third landfall: Torrijos, Masbate
Fourth landfall: Laiya, Batangas
Fifth landfall: Lubang, Island

The NDRRMC filed a total of more than four million residents affected in Regions III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII, VIII, CARAGA and the National Capital Region. 18 deaths were recorded while injured persons reached up to 916. Ruby damaged mostly infrastructure and agriculture—the total cost amounting to more than 5 billion peos.

Due to its devastating impact, a state of calamity was declared in San Pablo City in Laguna, Batangas, Albay, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate, Naga City, Juaban and Gubat in Sorsogon, Sorsogon City, Aklan; Maayon, Dumalag and Panay in Capiz; and Northern and Eastern Samar.

Because fatal storm surges brought by Typhoon Yolanda in 2013 made the public more aware of this weather phenomenon, Ruby kept Filipinos on their toes.

Coincidentally, while Ruby was inside PAR, an astronomical event happened. This was the Full Moon phase, which caused higher tidal variations due to our satellite’s strong gravitational pull.

Weather forecaster Chris Perez explained that higher waves were expected due to the combination of storm surge and the effects of the Full Moon.

Watch the Interview: Storm Tide

Scorching Season

taginit

PAGASA officially announced the start of the Hot and Dry season last March 26. Easterlies, the prevailing wind system during this time, brought hot and humid weather to the country.

Aside from the easterlies, this season’s indicators included the presence of the High Pressure Area (HPA), which brings good weather conditions, the termination of the northeast monsoon, and the increase in temperatures.

TAG-INIT_INDICATIORS

Upon the onset of the Hot and Dry season, the country undeniably experienced a number of scorching days that were especially evident in the Luzon area.

In March, Tuguegarao recorded a maximum temperature of 37.9 degrees Celsius. But its days got hotter in April and May, which brought in temperatures of 39 degrees and 39.8 degrees consecutively.

Meanwhile, the Science Garden in Quezon City documented a high of 36.7 degrees Celsius in May.

The Unpredictable El Niño

ELNINO_STATUS

Within this year, the El Niño phenomenon became a hot topic during the hot season as PAGASA continued to monitor the ups and down of sea surface temperature.

From April 21 to 28, PAGASA recorded a substantial increase in the sea surface temperature anomaly from 0.2 to 0.4 degree Celsius. It was then forecast that El Niño might reach its peak in the last quarter of 2014.

But with the recent report from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, only weak El Nino conditions were observed in November and December.


Here comes the rain!

tag-ulan

The rainy season in the country officially started in June 10. Before declaring the onset of this season, PAGASA first made sure that the following requirements were met:

• Daily thunderstorm activity
• Prevailing southwest monsoon
• 5-day period with a total rainfall of 25 millimeters or more in three consecutive days.

Come on, Amihan!

amihan

The Amihan season was officially declared by PAGASA on October 16. The northeast monsoon or amihan is the prevailing wind system, bringing light rains to its affected areas. It also has cold and dry characteristics, resulting to colder mornings.

At this time of the year, a gradual decrease in temperatures was observed in different parts of the country.

LOWEST 2014

Winter Solstice

Winter season in the northern hemisphere officially started on December 22 this year. This also signaled the start of experiencing longer nights and shorter days in the Philippines.

During the winter solstice, the northern hemisphere leans the farthest distance from the Sun, causing longer nights and lower temperatures for those in the northern hemisphere. The opposite happens in the southern hemisphere where people experience the longest day.

Related article: Winter has arrived

Although a lot has happened this year, there’s more to come this 2015. So brace yourself for those inevitable storms, but remember to keep to the sunny side of the street. With all the changes the weather brings, one thing stays the same: the Filipino brand of resilience that knows no bounds.

At 4:45 AM today, Tropical Storm Seniang made landfall over Sibonga, Cebu with maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 80 kilometers per hour. At 7:00 AM, it made another landfall over Guihulngan, Negros Oriental and at 8:00 AM, it was located in the vicinity of La Libertad, Negros Oriental.

Public Storm Warning Signals are still up over some areas of Visayas and Mindanao.

5AM Seninag Dec 30

Stormy weather will be experienced over Central Visayas and the provinces of Negros Occidental and Guimaras. The rest of Western Visayas and the provinces of Leyte, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Camotes Island, Zamboanga del Norte and Camihuin will have rains with gusty winds.

Bicol Region and Samar provinces will be cloudy with moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. Residents are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and the rest of Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms, while the rest of Luzon will be cloudy with light rains.

Travel for small seacraft is risky in the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon, Visayas and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, Seniang’s current intensity is capable of generating ocean waves that may reach up to 5 meters. Javier added that it is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday, January 2, 2015 if it maintains its speed and direction.

Free rides on Rizal Day

Today, December 30, marks the death anniversary of our national hero, Dr. Jose Rizal. In line with this, LRT and MRT stations will be giving free rides for commuters. See image below for reference:

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Prior to making landfall, Seniang intensified into Tropical Storm category this morning with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph. The storm continues to move in a west-northwest direction at 11 kph.

PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz says Seniang hit Baranggay Bakulin in Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur at 3:45 am today. The storm will move towards Agusan del Norte before traversing Bohol Sea, he added.

As it continues to cross the archipelago, more provinces in Visayas and Mindanao are placed under Public Storm Warning Signals:

PSWS 11AM

Areas under Signal #2 will experience stormy weather whereas rains with gusty winds will be felt over the provinces under signal #1. Residents living near low-lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Meanwhile, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos Regions, as well as Central Luzon, can expect cloudy skies with light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be partly cloudy to at times cloudy with isolated light rains.

PAGASA has also released gale warnings over the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas, where rough to very rough sea conditions are expected due to the surge of the northeast monsoon and tropical storm Seniang. The latest weather bulletin also shows the possibility of ocean waves reaching up to 5 meters, making sea travel very risky also in the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao.

Residents of Palawan will be experiencing a stormy new year. Loiz states if the storm maintains its current speed and direction, it will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by January 1 or 2.

Christmas is about gift-giving and celebrating with families and friends. This year, aside from the parties and presents, we must also prepare our emergency kit and rainy day essentials as #NinaPH threatens to affect the country.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), an average number of 1 or 2 tropical cyclones enter the PAR during the month of December. PAGASA added that these cyclones have a higher chance of hitting the landmass during ber months due to the effect of the northeast monsoon or amihan that directs the cyclones towards the country–which means that our holidays may be as merry as they are stormy. Take a look at some of the tropical cyclones that dropped by our country during the holiday season in the last few decades.

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DINANG
This tropical cyclone started as a cloud cluster spotted in Guam, which later developed into a tropical cyclone on the 22nd of December, 1981. From a tropical depression, it was named “Dinang” as it intensified into a tropical storm. Dinang initially moved west-northwest but changed its course to a westward direction due to the influence of a ridge of a high pressure area.

Dinang gained strength and intensified into a typhoon with maximum sustained winds that reached 185 kilometers per hour. It lashed the northern tip of Samar on Christmas Eve. It crossed the southern portion of Bicol Region, through the Bondoc peninsula, Marinduque and Mindoro. Dinang was located at 120 kilometers south of Metro Manila on December 26, which, according to PAGASA was its closest distance from the country’s capital.

It then moved towards the South China Sea, and after 48 hours of reaching its peak intensity, it weakened and dissipated.

By virtue of the Proclamation No. 2150, a state of public calamity in the provinces of Northern Samar, Masbate, Oriental Mindoro and Romblon was declared due to the damage brought by Dinang.

APIANG
Apiang became a tropical storm in the afternoon of December 23, 1988. It threatened Bicol, Quezon, Aurora, Quirino, Isabela and Cagayan. However, other weather systems weakend and slowed it down. PAGASA noted its clockwise loop on December 25, and was downgraded into a tropical depression. By the morning of December 26, Apiang already dissipated.

PURING
This cyclone crossed the PAR from the 23rd up to the 29th of December in 1993. Moving west-northwest, it made its way towards the Surigao-Leyte Area and passed through Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Panay and the Calamian Group of Islands.

Signal 3 was hoisted over Surigao Provinces, Dinagat Island, Agusan Del Norte, Camiguin Island, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Siquijor, Negros, Panay and Northern Palawan. Signal Number 2 was raised over Agusan Del Sur, Masbate, Misamis Provinces, Albay, Romblon, Sorsogon, Burias Island, Lanao Provinces, Davao Del Norte, Davao Oriental, Bukidnon, Zamboanga Del Norte, the rest of Palawan, Mindoro and the rest of Visayas. Metro Manila, Bataan, the rest of Southern Luzon, Lubang Island and the rest of Mindanao were put under Signal Number 1.

157 people were recorded dead while 276 were injured.

3

Typhoon Puring was the 32nd tropical storm that hit the country in 1993. This was a record-breaking season because normally, an average of only 19 to 20 tropical cyclones enters the PAR each year.

TRINING
On December 25, 1995, Trining formed into a tropical depression in the South Philippine Sea. It moved eastward close to the Southern Leyte – Surigao del Norte area but later changed course. Moving northeast, it exited the PAR through the northern part of the Philippine Sea.

ZIGZAG
From an active low pressure area (LPA) spotted east of Bicol, Zigzag developed into a tropical depression on Christmas morning in 2003. While moving westward, it slowed down in the evening of the 26th. Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 was raised over the Bicol Region, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Bohol, Cebu, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Surigao Provinces, Agusan del Norte and Camiguin. Zigzag moved towards Visayas, crossing the southern part of Samar and Leyte. After hitting the land, it weakened into a low pressure area in the morning of December 28.

QUINTA
As a low pressure area, this weather disturbance moved over the east of Northern Mindanao where it developed into a tropical depression on December 25, 2012. Quinta intensified into a Tropical Storm and was given an international name Wukong, which means a famous hero in a Chinese Story.

Nearing the landmass, Signal number 2 was declared over Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Province, Siargao Island, Western Samar, Cebu, Camotes Island, Bohol, Biliran, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Island, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao and the northern part of Negros Oriental.

Meanwhile, Signal number 1 was raised over Occidental & Oriental Mindoro, Northern Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Cuyo Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Lubang Island, Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, the rest of Negros Oriental, Guimaras, Camiguin, Siquijor, Burias Island, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur and Misamis Oriental.

Quinta crossed the region of Visayas where it made its landfall 7 times.
1st landfall: Eastern Samar
2nd landfall: Albuyog, Leyte
3rd – 5th landfall: Poro Island, Pacijan and Catmon (all in Cebu Province)
6th landfall: Northern part of Roxas
7th landfall: Coron, Palawan

After its series of landfalls, Quinta finally weakened into a tropical depression before it headed to Palawan. It moved towards the West Philippine Sea and further weakened due to the cold air intrusion from the amihan over the west of Palawan.

In a Situational Report of the NDRRMC dated on December 31, 2012, 44 incidents were monitored: two maritime incidents in Regions IV-A, IV-B, V and VIII; one drowing incident in Region V; one missing person and two falling tree incidents in Region VIII; one capsized banca in CARAGA; and thirty-three flooding incidents in Regions V, VI and VIII.

More than 50 thousand families were affected in Regions IV-B, V, VI, VII and VIII. Twenty people were reported dead, three were injured and four were missing. Quinta damaged more than 5 thousand houses in Regions VI, VII and VIII. Cost of damage amounted to more than 200 million pesos in infrastructure and agriculture.

Quinta’s intensity has brought storm surge over Cebu, Borongan City and Merida, Leyte on December 26, 2012 in which 2 casualties were recorded by the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH).

Preparation in the midst of Celebration
The tropical cyclones mentioned above are proof that the Yuletide Season does not equate to fair weather— so preparation should always be a part of any celebration. This way, even if Christmas comes in a stormy package, you’ll still be able to enjoy it by staying safe and secure.

Sources:
PAGASA-DOST | NDRRMC | http://blog.noah.dost.gov.ph/2014/02/04/compilation-of-storm-surge-occurrences-in-the-philippines/ | http://www.gov.ph/1981/12/29/proclamation-no-2150-s-1981/

At 9:00 AM today, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued a yellow rainfall warning over Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Quezon, Bulacan, Bataan and southern Zambales. Residents are alerted against possible flooding in low-lying areas. Meanwhile, light to moderate rains are affecting Batangas, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac and the rest of Zambales which may persist for 3 hours.

A day before Christmas, two weather systems continue to prevail over the country. These include the diffused tail end of a cold front affecting Southern Luzon and the northeast monsoon or amihan affecting Northern and Central Luzon. The tail end of a cold front occurs when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during convergence while amihan is cold and dry air coming from Mainland China or Siberia.

Aside from these weather systems, PAGASA Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran said that converging winds coming from the northeast and east have formed clouds, which will dump rains over Mindanao areas.

Metro Manila, the regions of CALABARZON, Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Davao, SOCCSKSARGEN, and the provinces of Mindoro, Romblon and Marinduque will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Central Luzon will have cloudy skies with light rains. Ilocos Region will be partly cloudy to cloudy with chances of isolated light rains, while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

Fishing boats and other small sea craft are still advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of Northern, Central and Southern Luzon, and Visayas due to the rough to very rough sea conditions brought by the surge of amihan.

LPA too far to affect PH

PAGASA has been monitoring a cloud cluster outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) which has already developed into a low pressure area (LPA). According to Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran, it is approximately more than 1,500 kilometers away from the country and is still too far to directly affect our landmass within the next 3 days. However, continuous monitoring will be done by the weather bureau.

MTSAT Image from PAGASA
MTSAT Image from PAGASA
MTSAT Image from PAGASA.
MTSAT Image from PAGASA.

Rains will be concentrated over Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region where cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms are expected. These rains are brought by the diffused tail end of a cold front, a weather system that occurs when the cold air mass dominates the warm air mass during convergence. Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to blow through Northern and Central Luzon.

Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon will have cloudy skies with light rains, while the rest of Northern and Central Luzon will experience isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country can look forward to generally fair weather with a chance of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

For sea travelers, gale warning is up over the seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon. These areas will experience rough to very rough sea conditions due to the surge of amihan. Coastal waters in the rest of the country will be moderate to rough.

Amihan peaks in January

Amihan, characterized as cold and dry air blowing from mainland China or Siberia, began to affect the Philippines last October 16, 2014. However, during the ber months, it’s still not completely felt all over the country. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Jori Loiz, this wind system will peak on January wherein the ocean has lower thermal capacity, which means it cannot absorb much heat. Minimum temperatures are usually recorded during this month.

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Longest Day

The official onset of the winter season in the northern hemisphere began today, December 22, 2014 at 7:03 AM (PST)

Engr. Dario Dela Cruz, PAGASA Space Sciences and Astronomy Section Chief, says the Philippines will start to experience longer nights as the sun reaches the winter solstice today.

The word solstice is derived from the Latin words sol, which means “sun,” and sistere meaning to “stand still.” Therefore, solstice literally translates into “the sun stands still.”

The winter solstice is an astronomical phenomenon, which occurs every year, signaling the shortest day and the longest night in the northern hemisphere in December, and June in the southern hemisphere.

Simply put, while winter begins in the northern hemisphere today, summer starts in the southern hemisphere.

During the winter solstice, the northern hemisphere leans the farthest away from the sun, bringing longer nights and lower temperatures for people living in the northern hemisphere. The opposite happens in the southern hemisphere where people experience the longest day.

The changing seasons are caused, not by the distance of the Earth from the Sun, but by the tilt of the earth. Aside from the solstices which occur during June and December, we also experience equinoxes in the months of March and September, which results to an approximately equal duration of night and day time.

Screen Shot 2014-12-22 at 1.51.39 PM

THE ANCIENT TRADITIONS

Some solstice traditions are celebrated in cognizance of this important astronomical occurrence. Since ancient times, the “rebirth of the Sun” is commemorated in a variety of ways.

The ancient Egyptians, for one, celebrates the return of Ra, the god of the Sun, after recovering from his supposed illness. The Romans, on the other hand, holds the ancient festival of Saturnalia in honor of Saturn, the god of Agriculture. The latter is closely related with the modern Christmas celebration during which gift giving is a key aspect.

In Scandinavia, Norse families light Yule logs and feast until the logs burn out, which could take as long as 12 days. Meanwhile, for the Chinese, an important festival called Dong Zhi or the arrival of winter is a perfect time for families to get together to celebrate the past year.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is the top source of information whenever weather disturbances threaten the country.
Aside from providing various weather data such as the 24-hour public weather forecasts, weather bulletins, farm weather forecasts, and shipping forecasts, the bureau also offers live broadcast reports for different media outlets.
The busiest days at the PAGASA office is when a tropical cyclone threatens the country. Through constant monitoring, PAGASA is able to disseminate weather updates—a must in ensuring public safety.
These updates are not all real-time; some of them come in the form of weather forecasts, which predict the different aspects of the tropical cyclone—its wind speeds, gustiness, track, and location among others. Weather forecasts are important as they allow different sectors of society, such as the government, private sectors and the general public, to prepare for disaster mitigation and management.
If forecasts are all about anticipating the cyclone’s movement, how then are they made? To learn how weather experts gather and interpret information, we go behind the scenes, right at the heart of the action.

Collective effort
PAGASA

Fortunetellers use cards, crystal balls, and palm lines to predict the future. In PAGASA’s case, a scientific-based approach is needed in creating weather forecasts.

WEATHER FORECASTING

Assessment of past conditions. Because history is a great teacher, forecasters first analyze past weather conditions. To pinpoint any developments, atmospheric models, data and climatological records are compared to current weather conditions. Climatological data, which is updated every ten years, refers to the average data based on a 30-year period.

PAGASA_CADA

Assessment of the current weather situation. Before PAGASA can look into the future, forecasters have to fully understand the “initial condition,” which refers to present weather conditions.
Prediction of the atmospheric state. By assessing past and current weather conditions, forecasters can now give an approximation of future weather conditions by applying the laws of Physics and using the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, a computer program where outputs consist of different weather parameters often used as guidance in forecasting.

PAGASA_FORECASTERS

Because the projected results are numerous, brainstorming sessions take place among the typhoon forecasters, regular forecasters and senior forecaster.
For every tropical cyclone, there are two typhoon forecasters working for 13 hours (one-day shift and one-night shift). By focusing on the tropical cyclone, the forecasters are able to deliver weather bulletins and shipping warnings.
Data is carefully weighed to come up with the most accurate weather forecast.

Observation. Data from 58 synoptic stations, including the Automatic Weather Station (AWS), satellites and radars, are transmitted to the central office through SMS phone, fax, internet, radio phone and Global Telecommunication System (GTS).

Plotting and analysis of weather data and Climatological records. Gathered data are plotted into maps, using symbols and numbers for analysis. During this stage, available climatological data are compared to predict future weather scenarios.

Modeling. For a deeper analysis, data from models like the Global Spectral Model (GSM), Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) and Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) are used to compare with all the data on hand.

COLLAGE_PLOTTING

With all the plotted and compared data on hand, brainstorming will now take place among the typhoon forecaster, regular forecasters and senior forecaster before finalizing the output.
Through the use of gathered and computed data, plus the experience of forecasters, a weather forecast that is nearly accurate is served.

Forecasts and warnings are finalized. After the final assessment of all forecasters and upon the approval of the senior forecaster, weather forecasts and weather bulletins are established. The tropical cyclone’s location, strength, velocity, and the Public Storm Warning Signals are also integrated.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

Reports are posted. Before the final weather bulletins and forecasts are made public, the regular forecasters, typhoon forecaster and senior forecaster sign the documents. This is to confirm that every piece of information written is correct and based on all available data.

If a tropical cyclone is forecast to make a landfall, PAGASA will automatically hold a press conference. This is to inform the media about the scenarios expected over the weather disturbance. Press briefing is also done every six hours with the release of the weather bulletin. This is to update the media regarding its strength, location and speed.

We may not think much of it, but forecasts are a product of meticulous processes. Weather forecasts are gems, and must not be taken lightly. With all the literal storms we’ve weathered, we, Filipinos, know all too well how disaster preparedness can spell the difference between life and death.