A possible tropical cyclone was spotted outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Based on PAGASA’s 5:00 AM Weather Forecast, the Low Pressure Area (PAR) was spotted east of Mindanao.
In an interview with Panahon TV, Weather Forecaster Samuel Duran said that the LPA may enter PAR today and may develop into a tropical cyclone. The weather disturbance may cross areas in the Visayas and Mindanao.
Due to the advancing clouds or trough of the LPA, the Davao Region and Soccsksargen will have cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. As the Northeast Monsoon prevails in the Northern Luzon, the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan Valley will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. In the rest of the country including Metro Manila, partly cloudy to cloudy skies will be experienced with isolated rain showers.
A weather disturbance is still being monitored by PAGASA within the Philippine premises. The Low Pressure Area (LPA) was last spotted at 500 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora. Despite its slim chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone, its cloudiness extends over the archipelago.
The entire Visayas and Mindanao, as well Bicol Region and MIMAROPA (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan) will experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
On the other hand, the Southwest Monsoon or Hanging Habagat is no longer dominant within the PAR, but this doesn’t mean that the Habagat season has ended. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Robert “Obet” Badrina, we are not in the transition period yet. Badrina noted that the Habagat can still return. The transition of wind patterns usually occurs in October. However, the public is still advised to monitor further development including the arrival of the Amihan season.
PAGASA’s Astronomical Diary shows that the Autumnal Equinox will occur on September 23, 2017 at around 4:03 AM. Derived from the latin word aequus, which means equal, and nox meaning night, the equinox refers to the time of the year where day and night are of approximately equal duration.
Badrina said this astronomical event will not have a significant effect on our weather aside from causing longer nights in the Philippines. Since longer nights equate to shorter exposure to sunlight, colder weather may gradually begin especially when Amihan becomes dominant.
“Kiko”, the 11th tropical cyclone that developed within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and the first for the month of September, was last located at 345 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora. Classified as a Tropical Depression, it has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of 65 kph.
Moving west-northwest at 15 kph, Kiko is expected to cross Extreme Northern Luzon tomorrow morning and may exit the PAR by evening. As of 8:00 AM today, Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal Number 1 is still up over Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Batanes and the Babuyan Group of Islands.
Due to the Tropical Depression, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Batanes and the Babuyan Group of Islands will experience rains with gusty winds. Cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains with thunderstorms will affect Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Abra and Kalinga.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon and Western Visayas will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and possible thunderstorms. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers will prevail in the rest of the archipelago.
PAGASA did not issue a gale warning but noted that sea travel is risky int he eastern seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon. Coastal waters in these areas will be moderate to rough.
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza, the prevailing weather systems expected this month include Tropical Cyclones, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) and Hanging Habagat. These will bring rains and thunderstorms in the affected areas.
Mendoza added that the ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA) may also affect the country, mostly during the absence of a weather disturbance. This will bring fair weather with a very slim chance of rain.
LPA may develop into a Tropical Depression
A Low Pressure Area (LPA) still persists within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
At 3:00 AM today, the LPA was at 95 kilometers north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Robert Badrina, the LPA may continue to intensify and develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours. If this happens, the country’s 11th Tropical Cyclone this year will be named “Kiko.”
As the LPA prevails, Ilocos Region, Batanes and the Babuyan group of Islands will have moderate to occasionally heavy rains, which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. Metro Manila, Cordillera, Central Luzon, the rest of Cagayan Valley, Mindoro, Cavite, and Batangas will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. The rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies except for isolated light to occasionally heavy rains due to thunderstorms.
Question of the Day
As the “ber” months set in, Panahon TV Facebook follower Ryan Edward Sol asked: “Should we expect the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan to prevail next month?”
According to Badrina, the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat is still expected to prevail until October. Badrina noted that the Amihan begins in November and will be felt in Metro Manila starting December until February.
An average of 18 to 20 tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) yearly. This number is more than enough to cause devastation in different parts of the country.
As the national weather bureau, PAGASA duly informs and warns the Filipino people against every weather disturbance that may affect the country. Together with the Office of Civil Defense and the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC), information and disaster preparedness drives are implemented.
But during the onslaught of a tropical cyclone, people tend to focus on the losses it has caused, and rarely talk about its benefits.
Here’s are some reasons why storms are essential to our survival:
They fill up our reservoirs. In a tropical country like the Philippines, a large portion of the annual rain comes from cyclones. Though these are dubbed as “weather disturbances,” cyclones don’t only get rid of pollutants in the atmosphere, but also give us our much-needed water supply. In fact, studies shows that 25% of the water supplies in India and Southeast Asia come from rain showers brought by cyclones. Regions that are facing dry and drought conditions can benefit from cyclones. Increased rainfall enables the ground to hold more moisture that is conducive to crops.
They keep our bodies of water healthy. Rain showers help river systems flush out silt. According to National Geographic, silt is made up of rock and minerals that are bigger than clay but smaller than sand, that are worn away by water or ice. Silts are fine sediment that gathers at the bottoms of river, streams and lakes. These can be a rich source of nutrients for fish, however it can be presented by unnatural process. Build up of silts introduced by industry can be harmful as it contains chemicals.
Another advantage of rains is they inundate areas where fish can breed, thus increasing the number of fish. Cyclones can also help circulate nutrients from the seafloor, boosting ocean productivity.
They balance the global temperature. Cyclones move towards the poles, thus balancing the earth’s temperature by pushing warm tropical away from the equator. It is said that the poles will get a lot colder, and the tropics would get a lot hotter if there were no tropical cyclones.
The “ber” months are in! But before you start playing Christmas carols and putting together your holiday shopping list, know what to expect this month, weather-wise.
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
The ITCZ is an area in the atmosphere where winds from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres meet—a convergence that contributes to cloud formation. According to PAGASA, the axis of ITCZ is erratic so it may affect any part of the country, usually bringing cloudy skies and light to moderate rain showers.
Although PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez explains that September is usually the time of the year when the southwest monsoon is nearing its termination period, this weather system can still come to play this month. The southwest monsoon, locally known as “habagat”, is composed of warm and moist air that comes from the southwest direction. It causes monsoon rains or moderate to heavy rain showers that could last for days or a week. Know more about habagat through this article.
Low Pressure Area (LPA)
The LPA is an area that has lower atmospheric pressure than its surrounding locations. This is usually formed in the Pacific Ocean where most water vapor is available. LPA brings light to moderate and sometimes heavy rain showers. This could also intensify into a tropical cyclone.
Tropical cyclones are the general term for bagyo, and are classified into four: Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Typhoon and Super Typhoon.
In September, an average of 3 to 4 tropical cyclones are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Based on the forecast track, most of the cyclones will affect Central and Northern Luzon.
In September 2014, three cyclones entered the Philippine boundary:
Typhoon Luis, with the international name Kalmaegi, made landfall in Northern Luzon. Almost 8,000 individuals were affected and displaced in Regions I, II, III, IV-A, as well as the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and the National Capital Region (NCR).
Tropical Storm Mario
Tropical storm Mario (internationally known as Fung-Wong) made landfall in the northern tip of Cagayan. The combined effect of Mario and the southwest monsoon caused heavy rains in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.
More than 2 million individuals were affected in the 27 provinces of Regions I, II, III, IV-B, V, VII, CAR and NCR. 18 dead and 16 injured were reported as Mario left the Philippine Area of responsibility (PAR).
Tropical Depression Karding
Tropical depression Karding was first spotted as a low pressure area near Iba, Zambales. Karding did not make any landfall; however, it brought moderate to heavy rain showers in the western part of Luzon.
So don’t forget to arm yourselves with umbrellas and raincoats because according to PAGASA, there will be 22 days of rain this month. Minimum temperature is pegged at 24 degrees Celsius while the maximum is at 31.6 degrees Celsius.
Tropical Storm Egay slightly intensified as it moved closer towards Northern Luzon. From a previous strength of 85 kph, it now packs 95 kph maximum sustained winds and gustiness of 120 kph. It slowed down to a speed of 9 kph in a northwest direction due to a high pressure area located southeast of Japan.
More areas are now placed under signal #2. These provinces will experience stormy weather with winds of 61 to 120kph within 24 hours. Meanwhile, expect rains with gusty winds over areas under signal #1:
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio, Egay is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning in the northern tip of Cagayan. Its second contact with land will be over the Batanes area by Sunday night or Monday morning. If it maintains its current speed and direction, Egay will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday afternoon.
Egay still has the possibility of intensifying in the following hours but has a slim chance of reaching typhoon category, he added.
Tropical Storm Egay is the first cyclone in the Philippines this July and the fifth this year. It has an international name of Linfa which means a Lotus, the city flower of Macau.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chan Hom is expected to enter PAR by Wednesday or Thursday next week. If it does, it will be named Falcon and will further enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.
Despite the distance of Egay from the western side of the Philippines, moderate to heavy rains will still be experienced over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and Bicol Region due to the enhancement of the southwest monsoon. Light to moderate rains and thunderstorms can be expected over Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon. The rest of Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms tonight.
In related news, gale warning has been issued over the seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Fishing boats and small seacraft are advised against venturing out into the sea due to strong to gale force winds and rough to very rough sea conditions.
The Ridge of High Pressure Area continues to affect Luzon. This weather system is associated with fair weather conditions and high temperatures.
Today, the Philippines will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.
Temperatures may reach up to 35 degrees Celsius with the heat index forecast showing 40.2 degrees Celsius in Metro Manila.
To counter the heat while looking your best, wearing light-weight and light colored clothing is recommended. Sunglasses don’t only look trendy; they also protect your eyes from the glare. Umbrellas with bright colors help shade you from the sun’s rays while giving off happy summer vibes.
In other news, PAGASA releases the revised classification of tropical cyclones effective May 01, 2015.
Accordingly, the public storm warning signal system of the agency was also modified.
PAGASA raised public storm warning signal #1 in Luzon and Visayas today as Typhoon Dodong continues to move closer to the Philippine landmass.
These areas will experience winds of up to 30 to 60 kph in at least a day and a half. Winds this strong may pose light damage to medium to low risk structures, and slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures.
State Meteorologist Alvin Pura added that Metro Manila may not be included in the signal warning this weekend unless Dodong’s track goes lower than expected.
The typhoon currently packs 150 kph maximum sustained winds near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph. Pura said though there is a possibility of further intensification in the following hours, Dodong will not reach Super Typhoon status. However, once it hits land, a decrease in wind strength is expected before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The cyclone also slowed down a bit this morning, still moving west northwest now at 17 kph.
In the current forecast track, Pura states that Dodong is expected to move nearer to Bicol Region within 24 hours. It will also skirt the eastern section of Central Luzon before making landfall over the Isabela-Cagayan area Sunday morning. If it maintains its current speed and direction, the typhoon is expected to exit PAR late Monday or early Tuesday.
As for the weather today, based on PAGASA’s latest weather forecast, the areas under Signal #1 will experience rains with gusty winds. On the other hand, a rainy weather condition will also be experienced in Central Visayas, the rest of Eastern Visayas, and over the regions of CARAGA, Davao and Northern Mindanao. The rest of the country including will Metro Manila can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorm in the following hours.
Meanwhile, areas in the northern Luzon area currently experiencing dry spell will benefit from the rains the typhoon will bring. However, once Dodong passes, the area will continue to experience high temperatures.