After the sweltering heat of the past few months, we now brace ourselves for rains asPAGASA declared the onset of the rainy season yesterday afternoon, May 24, 2016.
In a press statement, the weather bureau said that widespread rainfall has been observed these past few days. Winds, which previously moved from the east, have now changed from a south to southwest direction, indicating the shift from dry to wet season.
Due to the warm and moist characteristics of the “habagat” or the southwest monsoon, rains and thunderstorms will be frequently experienced in several parts of the country. However, PAGASA clarified that tag-ulan will be mostly experienced over the Climate Type 1 areas, covering the western parts of Luzon and Visayas.
Last year, the onset of tag-ulan was announced on June 23, 2015— delayed compared to this year. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar said there is nothing unusual with this because the rainy season normally occurs during the last week of May until early June.
“Mas maaga nga ito compared noong nakaraang taon dahil maaga ring nag-umpisa ang onset sa bahagi ng India, Bangladesh at Myanmar… at kapag nag-south to southwest na rin ang hangin sa bahagi ng China. South to southwest na rin po ang hangin lalo na sa western side ng ating bansa,” Escullar said in an interview with Panahon TV.
Meanwhile, here are the criteria for declaring the onset of tag-ulan:
– A five-day period within April, May, June or July with a total rainfall amount of 25 millimeters or more with three consecutive days having at least 1 millimeter of rainfall per day. This must be recorded at no less than five of these stations: Laoag, Vigan, Dagupan, Iba, Mindoro Occidental, Ambulong, Iloilo, and Metro Manila.
– At least two out of three stations in Metro Manila must have satisfied the first criterion simultaneously.
– Prevailing winds in the Western Philippines should have westerly to southwesterly components. The southwest monsoon,commonly known as hanging habagat, should also be the dominant wind system.
Although some of these criteria are yet to be satisfied, PAGASA decided to declare the onset ahead of time to prepare the public for heavier rains in the coming days. Escullar added that within the next three days, there is a big possibility that all the criteria will be observed.
Now that tag-ulan has arrived, all are advised to regularly bring umbrellas and raincoats. Know more about what to bring in “TAG-ULAN” Checklist: Rainy Day Essentials.
El Niño is expected to return to a neutral condition by the end of July. But, there is still a 50% chance that La Niña will develop in the Pacific Ocean. It will possibly affect the country in the last quarter of 2016 (October- December).
Know more: El Niño to end, La Niña to follow?
At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm #JennyPH was estimated at 1,120 kms. east of Calayan Island, Cagayan. It intensified with maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph. It is forecast to move west-northwest at 7 kph. Though Jenny has a slim chance of making landfall on any part of the country, it will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon.
Today, MIMAROPA, Calabarzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao will have rainy weather conditions. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms will prevail over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. The effect of the enhanced southwest monsoon will be experienced in Metro Manila starting tomorrow.
If Jenny maintains its speed and direction, it is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Sunday evening or early Monday morning.
The “ber” months are in! But before you start playing Christmas carols and putting together your holiday shopping list, know what to expect this month, weather-wise.
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
The ITCZ is an area in the atmosphere where winds from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres meet—a convergence that contributes to cloud formation. According to PAGASA, the axis of ITCZ is erratic so it may affect any part of the country, usually bringing cloudy skies and light to moderate rain showers.
Although PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez explains that September is usually the time of the year when the southwest monsoon is nearing its termination period, this weather system can still come to play this month. The southwest monsoon, locally known as “habagat”, is composed of warm and moist air that comes from the southwest direction. It causes monsoon rains or moderate to heavy rain showers that could last for days or a week. Know more about habagat through this article.
Low Pressure Area (LPA)
The LPA is an area that has lower atmospheric pressure than its surrounding locations. This is usually formed in the Pacific Ocean where most water vapor is available. LPA brings light to moderate and sometimes heavy rain showers. This could also intensify into a tropical cyclone.
Tropical cyclones are the general term for bagyo, and are classified into four: Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Typhoon and Super Typhoon.
In September, an average of 3 to 4 tropical cyclones are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Based on the forecast track, most of the cyclones will affect Central and Northern Luzon.
In September 2014, three cyclones entered the Philippine boundary:
Typhoon Luis, with the international name Kalmaegi, made landfall in Northern Luzon. Almost 8,000 individuals were affected and displaced in Regions I, II, III, IV-A, as well as the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and the National Capital Region (NCR).
Tropical Storm Mario
Tropical storm Mario (internationally known as Fung-Wong) made landfall in the northern tip of Cagayan. The combined effect of Mario and the southwest monsoon caused heavy rains in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.
More than 2 million individuals were affected in the 27 provinces of Regions I, II, III, IV-B, V, VII, CAR and NCR. 18 dead and 16 injured were reported as Mario left the Philippine Area of responsibility (PAR).
Tropical Depression Karding
Tropical depression Karding was first spotted as a low pressure area near Iba, Zambales. Karding did not make any landfall; however, it brought moderate to heavy rain showers in the western part of Luzon.
So don’t forget to arm yourselves with umbrellas and raincoats because according to PAGASA, there will be 22 days of rain this month. Minimum temperature is pegged at 24 degrees Celsius while the maximum is at 31.6 degrees Celsius.
Most parts of Luzon will experience rain showers due to sthe outhwest monsoon (habagat).
Pangasinan, Zambales and Bataan will have monsoon rains usually characterized by moderate to heavy rain showers.
Occasional rains will be experienced in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Visayas and Mindanao will have good weather conditions; however, isolated thunderstorms are still possible, PAGASA said.
Today, the southwest monsoon remains to be the dominant weather system as Typhoon Goni (Ineng) moves farther from Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Know more about this weather system through this link. Understanding “HABAGAT”
At 12 midnight, Typhoon Ineng left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). However, it will still enhance the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat.
Habagat will bring monsoon rains in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Light to moderate rains will be experienced in the western section of Visayas, while the rest of the country will have fair weather apart from isolated rains and thunderstorms.
#walangpasok | August 24, 2015
Due to Typhoon Ineng, classes are suspended in all levels in the following areas:
At 17 kph, Ineng accelerates, moving in the north-northeast direction. It was last located at 295 kms. northeast of Basco, Batanes, while maintaining its 140 kph maximum sustained winds and gustiness of 170 kph.
PAGASA says that typhoon Ineng is expected to exit Philippine boundary tonight or tomorrow morning.
Public Storm Warning Signals are now raised in the following:
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Meanwhile, stormy weather with rough to very rough seas will prevail over the Batanes group of islands. Calayan and the Babuyan group of islands will experience rains with gusty winds.
An enhanced southwest monsoon will bring moderate to heavy rains, which may trigger flashfloods and landslides in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.
The western and central section of Visayas will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers, while eastern Visayas and Mindanao will have an improved weather conditions.
The southwest monsoon is now affecting the western section of extreme Northern Luzon. Light to moderate rains will be experienced over Batanes Group of Island.
The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will enjoy generally fair weather though isolated rain showers due to thunderstorm activities are still possible.
Meanwhile, another weather disturbance is being monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency. PAGASA said that this weather disturbance could intensify into a tropical cyclone. It is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) next week and will have the same movement as cyclone Hanna’s (Saudelor).
More rains for August
The month of August has an average of 504.2mm amount of rains. Based on the latest data from PAGASA, since August 1 until yesterday, 193.9mm rainfall has been recorded. Compared to last month, more rains will be experienced this month.
Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy sky with isolated rains or thunderstorms.
However, in the coming days, most parts of the country will receive less rainfall due to the monsoon break. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza, a monsoon break happens when the habagat weakens.
#WalangPasok: Classes cancelled due to water interruption
Due to Maynilad’s rotating water interruptions, some schools and universities in Manila have cancelled their classes.
The southwest monsoon, locally known as “habagat”, will bring heavy rains over Ilocos Region, Benguet, Central Luzon, Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan. Residents are advised against the possibility of flash floods and landslide.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila, Mindoro, CALABARZON, and the rest of Cordillera and Cagayan Valley will experience occasional rain showers.
The rest of the country will have good weather, coupled with partly cloudy skies and isolated rain showers.
A new low pressure area (LPA) was formed yesterday inside Philippine boundary. At 4 AM, the LPA was located at 870 kms. east northeast of Basco, Batanes. However, according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, the LPA has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone and will dissipate soon before leaving the Philippine boundary.