Inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), the low-pressure area (LPA) remains almost stationary. At 4:00 AM today, the LPA was spotted at 560 kms. east of Legazpi City.
The said weather disturbance is still embedded along the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) currently across Visayas.
Based on PAGASA’s latest weather forecast, we can expect cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms over Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the provinces of Mindoro and Palawan.
The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chan Hom is expected to intensify into typhoon category. It also has a probability of absorbing its nearest LPA.
State meteorologist Jori Loiz says it has a low chance of entering the PAR as it moves towards Southern Japan. However, it will enhance the southwest monsoon, which will bring more rains in the western side of the Philippines.
Japan- PANAHON.TV, the Philippines’ only dedicated program on weather and traffic, climate change and preparedness is covering the 3rd UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan on March 14-18, 2015.
Located 300 kilometers north of Tokyo, Sendai was one of the hard hit areas of the March 11, 2011 Great East Asian Earthquake. Multi-sector experts will be attending the conference.
The key focus of the conference is the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. There will also be a series of public forums and study tours in Sendai.
United Nations’ Secretary- General UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will be meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe together with leaders attending the conference.
For more information on the conference, visit: http://www.wcdrr.org/home. The hashtag: #WCDRR will also be used for the conference.
The northeast monsoon is still the dominant weather system inside the PH boundary.
Today, the islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan will have partly cloudy skies with light precipitation. Meanwhile the rest of the country including Metro Manila will have favorable weather conditions, however PAGASA suggests continuous monitoring as isolated rains and thunderstorms are expected to happen within the day.
The state weather bureau is also monitoring the progress of El Nino. According to PAGASA Meteorologist Buddy Javier, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a reported weak El Nino. However, the full details regarding the matter will be discussed today at the conference to be held at PAGASA.
March 11, 2011: The Great East Japan Quake and Tsunami
Exactly four years ago, the people of Northeast Japan experienced the darkest and longest six minutes of their lives as a 9.0 magnitude earthquake shook their homes, setting off a chain of catastrophic events that killed 15,703 people and destroyed $300 billion worth of properties.
Let us remember the key events that unfolded on those fateful days, which began on March 11, 2011.
Typhoon Vongfong, locally named Ompong, has been classified under Category 5: Super Typhoon status by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Since Typhoon Haiyan, locally known as Yolanda, Ompong is the strongest tropical cyclone to approach Asia.
In comparison, Typhoon Yolanda, which remains the strongest tropical cyclone that recently battered the country in recent history (2013), reached maximum sustained winds of 235 kilometers per hour while Ompong’s peak is at 215 kilometers per hour.
In the Philippines, no Public Storm Warning Signal has been raised as the typhoon has no direct effect on the country, aside from enhancing the Northeasterly wind flow, bringing rough to very rough sea conditions in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.
Even while maintaining its impressive maximum sustained winds for days and going nowhere near the Philippine landmass after spending hours over the sea, Ompong is not intensifying because according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio, cold and dry air from the higher latitudes are beginning to join in the cyclone’s circulation. Dry air is not conducive to cyclones as weather disturbances feed off warm and moist air to intensify.
Furthermore, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) states that tropical cyclones are strongest when in the tropics. As they move towards the subtropical region and the temperate zone, they start to gradually weaken.
Why Ompong is slow-moving
Aurelio says there are two High Pressure Areas (HPAs) on each side of the typhoon, its ridge hampering its northward movement. When the extension of the anti-cyclone recedes, Ompong will continue its sail towards Japan.
At 13 kilometers per hour moving northward, Bagyong ‘Ompong’ is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Saturday.
Currently, over open water, Ompong fails to have a major impact on the Philippines.
Over Taiwan, its southern portions, which are included in the Philippine Area of Responsibility, might experience strong winds and cloudy skies with light to moderate rains, Aurelio says.
However, Japan is another matter. While recovering from the recent cyclone Phanphone that slammed rains on Central Japan, Super Typhoon Vongfong threatens to make landfall in Japan in the following days.
According to JTWC, based on the current forecast track of Vongfong, the typhoon is moving near or over mainland Japan, which include Tokyo and other major cities. However, the typhoon may weaken considerably as it moves closer and begins to affect the country this weekend until early next week.
The strong winds of Vongfong might also batter Ryukyu Island, including Okinawa this weekend. Come Monday, effects will reach Kyushu, Shikoku and later in Honshu, including Tokyo and Osaka.
Typhoon Ompong is the 15th tropical cyclone this year, and the second this October.
The name Vongfong was contributed by Macau, China, which means wasp or putakti in Tagalog.
It has been used three times in tropical storm category in 2002 and 2008, and in typhoon category this year.
Sources: JMA, JTWC, PAGASA
Typhoon Ompong with international name Vongfong is tagged as the strongest typhoon in the world for 2014.
According to Meteorologist Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, “Vongfong is the strongest tropical cyclone we’ve had all year anywhere on Earth,” categorized as a super typhoon by the US Naval Observatory’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Meanwhile the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) described its intensity from very strong to violent, with maximum winds of 215 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 250 kilometers per hour, moving towards Japan at 9 kilometers per hour.
The reason for its decrease in speed is caused by the intensity of rains it brings, and the presence of the High Pressure Area (HPA) in Japan. Still, the typhoon’s destructive winds and inundating rains are expected to hit Mainland Japan.
PH safe from Ompong
But the good news is PAGASA assured that the super typhoon will not directly affect any part of the country, and is expected to be outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday morning.
However, it may intensify winds from the northwest and southwest, creating wind convergence over Mindanao, where the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is located, which has been bringing rains over that area. Converging winds from different paths automatically create clouds that often lead to thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening. This weather system may bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains.
Meanwhile, Cagayan Valley and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) will also experience light to moderate rains brought by northeast monsoon or the amihan.
During this period, the transition of winds from southwest to northeast is still happening. This is the reason why PAGASA has yet to officially declare the amihan season, associated with dry and cold air, because of the lingering presence of the weak southwest monsoon or habagat, associated with humid and warm air.
Sources: PAGASA | JTWC | JMA | NOAA | AccuWeather.com