Tropical Storm Egay slightly intensified as it moved closer towards Northern Luzon. From a previous strength of 85 kph, it now packs 95 kph maximum sustained winds and gustiness of 120 kph. It slowed down to a speed of 9 kph in a northwest direction due to a high pressure area located southeast of Japan.
More areas are now placed under signal #2. These provinces will experience stormy weather with winds of 61 to 120kph within 24 hours. Meanwhile, expect rains with gusty winds over areas under signal #1:
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio, Egay is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning in the northern tip of Cagayan. Its second contact with land will be over the Batanes area by Sunday night or Monday morning. If it maintains its current speed and direction, Egay will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday afternoon.
Egay still has the possibility of intensifying in the following hours but has a slim chance of reaching typhoon category, he added.
Tropical Storm Egay is the first cyclone in the Philippines this July and the fifth this year. It has an international name of Linfa which means a Lotus, the city flower of Macau.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chan Hom is expected to enter PAR by Wednesday or Thursday next week. If it does, it will be named Falcon and will further enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.
Despite the distance of Egay from the western side of the Philippines, moderate to heavy rains will still be experienced over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA and Bicol Region due to the enhancement of the southwest monsoon. Light to moderate rains and thunderstorms can be expected over Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon. The rest of Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms tonight.
In related news, gale warning has been issued over the seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Fishing boats and small seacraft are advised against venturing out into the sea due to strong to gale force winds and rough to very rough sea conditions.
Inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), the low-pressure area (LPA) remains almost stationary. At 4:00 AM today, the LPA was spotted at 560 kms. east of Legazpi City.
The said weather disturbance is still embedded along the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) currently across Visayas.
Based on PAGASA’s latest weather forecast, we can expect cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms over Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the provinces of Mindoro and Palawan.
The rest of the country, including Metro Manila, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chan Hom is expected to intensify into typhoon category. It also has a probability of absorbing its nearest LPA.
State meteorologist Jori Loiz says it has a low chance of entering the PAR as it moves towards Southern Japan. However, it will enhance the southwest monsoon, which will bring more rains in the western side of the Philippines.
The Philippines will experience warm and humid weather yet again as the Ridge of High Pressure Area remains to be the dominant weather system affecting Luzon.
Expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.
According to PAGASA, this weather condition will continue tomorrow and on Sunday. For those venturing out this weekend, better pack your fans to stave off hot weather, and umbrellas just in case it rains in your area.
Meanwhile, if yesterday was Hug-Your-Cat Day, today is World Environment Day!
Expect the same weather condition yesterday as the Ridge of High Pressure Area continues to prevail over Luzon.
The whole archipelago will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening. Bringing an umbrella is advisable to avoid any weather-related hassles this Thursday.
Sea travel can be enjoyed with light to moderate winds and slight to moderate waves in the following hours.
To look back on the month that was, here are the highest temperatures recorded in the Philippines, including Metro Manila, during the month of May 2015:
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, we no longer expect to hit such temperatures this month as thunderstorms will be more frequent in the following days.
Despite this, we will continue to experience hot and humid weather conditions due to the prevailing El Niño phenomenon, which will also affect the amount of rainfall.
The Ridge of High Pressure Area remains to be the dominant weather system affecting the country particularly over Northern Luzon.
This weather system associated with fair weather condition will bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies in the following hours. However, thunderstorm formation is still possible mostly in the afternoon or evening.
Coastal waters throughout the archipelago will be slight to moderate, making sea travel fairly easy and breezy with light to moderate winds.
Temperature in Metro Manila plays between 25 to 36°C. Expect to feel a heat index of at least 40.1°C especially after lunch.
Meanwhile, all commuters taking the Metro Rail Transit are advised to leave earlier than usual as queues are expected to be quite longer today. With airconditioning problems, only 9 out of 20 trains will be operational. Avoid the rush hours if possible and bring drinking water to avoid dehydration while waiting for your train to arrive.
Typhoon Dolphin is no longer expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Buddy Javier, the said weather disturbance is set to recurve as the presence of the High Pressure Area above the Philippines hinders its supposed entry into the country’s eastern boundary.
Today, the Ridge of High Pressure Area reaching Luzon brings partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms usually occurring in the afternoon or evening. The same weather condition is expected to persist this weekend.
Meanwhile, the El Nino phenomenon is expected to persist in the northern hemisphere until the end of 2015. Based on the latest data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the sea surface temperature anomaly continues in the equatorial Pacific.
In the Philippines, the persistence of the said phenomenon will incur below normal rainfall, above normal temperatures and weak tropical cyclone activity.
At 10:00 AM today, the center of the typhoon Hagupit was estimated at 1,543 kilometers east of Davao City. Packing winds of 140 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 170 kilometers per hour, it maintains its velocity moving west-northwest at 30 kilometers per hour.
If it maintains its speed and direction, it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, Thursday, and will be given the local name “Ruby”. Upon entering the PAR, the typhoon will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas.
In a press briefing held earlier today at the PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center, two scenarios are still expected to happen. However, most meteorological models show a higher chance of landfall activity.
PAGASA Weather Forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said the first possible outcome is the typhoon making landfall over Eastern Visayas, bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains. Aside from possible flash floods and landslides, storm surges of up to 3 to 4 meters could also occur.
On the other hand, the second scenario shows that if the high pressure area (HPA) weakens, it will give way for Hagupit to re-curve away from the country, leading to Japan. Everyone is advised to monitor updates regarding the approaching typhoon.
No direct effect yet
Hagupit is still far to directly affect the country. However according to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Glaiza Escullar, the outer cloud band of the typhoon is gradually reaching PAR, bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas.
Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or amihan continues to prevail over Nothern and Central Luzon. Cagayan Valley will have cloudy skies with light rains while the regions of Cordillera, Ilocos and Central Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Gale warning includes the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing over the seaboards of Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela and Aurora.
“Hagupit” compared to previous typhoons
Based on the climatological records of PAGASA, Typhoon Camilla (1949), Typhoon Aning (1966) and Typhoon Seniang (2006) have almost the same location where Hagupit would originate as it enters the PAR.