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A Tropical Depression is brewing outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
 
According to PAGASA weather forecaster Sheilla Reyes, two Low Pressure Areas (LPA) are still being monitored. The one inside PAR, spotted at 420 kilometers (km) east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, is expected to dissipate. However, the other LPA outside PAR may intensify into a Tropical Depression. Reyes said that the LPA was spotted at 1,975 km. east of Mindanao. Based on PAGASA’s analysis, it may develop into a Tropical Depression tomorrow and will be named ‘Basyang’, the country’s second tropical cyclone this 2018. It is forecast to enter PAR on Sunday or Monday.
 

 
On Monday evening or early Tuesday, it may hit Northern Mindanao and the southern part of Visayas before heading toward Palawan on Wednesday, February 14. PAGASA is not ruling out the possibility of the cyclone intensifying into a Tropical Storm (a cyclone with winds between 62 to 88 kilometers per hour) before landfall.
 
Although two weather disturbances surround the country, the Northeast Monsoon remains the dominant weather system. It will bring cloudy skies with scattered rains in the Cagayan Valley Region and Cordillera Administrative Region, while causing partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rains in Ilocos Region. In the rest of the country including Metro Manila, partly cloudy to cloudy skies, or generally fair weather with isolated rain showers will be experienced.
 
With the surge of Amihan, gale warning is still in effect in the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon. These include coasts of Batanes, the Babuyan Group of Islands, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan and Isabela. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are prohibited from venturing, while larger sea vessels are alerted against rough to very rough seas.
 

The Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of Mindanao has intensified into a Tropical Depression and was given the local name Urduja, the country’s 21st tropical cyclone this year.
 
At 10:00 AM today, Tropical Depression Urduja was at 405 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. It has maximum winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 65 kph, moving north-northwest at 7 kph. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Chris Perez, it may intensify into a Tropical Storm within the next 36 hours and hit the Southern Bicol Region or the northern part of Samar Provinces on Saturday.
 
 

 
As Urduja heads towards the landmass, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas will experience cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms, which may trigger flash floods and landslides. In Mindanao, the rest of Visayas, MIMAROPA and CALABARZON, cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms may cause flash floods and landslides. Cloudy skies with scattered rains will prevail in Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and the rest of Central Luzon. Meanwhile, Ilocos Region will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains.
 

 
Because of the surge of Amihan, gale warning is still in effect in seaboards of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon and Visayas where wave height may reach up to 3.4 to 4.5 meters. Fishing boats and other small seacraft are advised not to venture out into the sea, while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves in Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Isabela, Aurora, Catanduanes; the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Provinces; the eastern coasts of Albay, Sorsogon, and Quezon including Polilio Island; northern and eastern coasts of Northern Samar; and the eastern coast of Eastern Samar.
 

 
At 10:00 AM today, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was spotted at 450 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. Through its 11:00 AM Weather Advisory, PAGASA said that the LPA may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Robert Badrina, it may cross Eastern Visayas and Southern Luzon, and may bring rains in Metro Manila by Thursday until Saturday.
 
Apart from the LPA, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is causing rains in Palawan and Mindanao, while the Northeast Monsoon dampens Northern and Central Luzon.
 
Today, the Zamboanga Peninsula and Palawan will experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the ITCZ. The LPA will bring cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region. For Metro Manila and the regions of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos, Cordillera and Central Luzon, partly cloudy to cloudy skies will prevail with isolated light rains due to the Amihan. The rest of the country will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
 



Rains are more likely to prevail due to the Low Pressure Area (LPA), last located in the vicinity of Maddela, Quirino. PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong noted that it has a slim chance of developing into a Tropical Depression within the day but once it reaches the West Philippine Sea, it may accumulate moisture and may still intensify as a “bagyo”.

Because the LPA is now traversing in between Northern and Central Luzon, it will continue to dump rains in several areas. Cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms are expected in Bicol Region and in the provinces of Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Batanes and the Babuyan Group of Islands. PAGASA alerts the residents against possible flooding and landslides.

Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rains with thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Visayas and Mindanao can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon or evening.

Gale warning is up in the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon, where rough to very rough sea condition is expected. Sea travel is risky for fishing boats and other small seacraft as wave height may reach up to 3.4 to 4.5 meters.

Have you noticed the slightly cooler weather mostly in the early morning? Quitlong added that northeasterly winds are already approaching. The ongoing transition period or shifting of wind patterns signifies that Habagat is no longer expected to affect the country. Hence, Amihan season is just around the corner!

 
“Kiko” brings Signal #1
 
Tropical Depression “Kiko” maintains its strength and is now traversing the Balintang Channel.
 
At 4:00 AM today, the center of the weather disturbance was estimated at 95 kilometers west of Basco, Batanes. It has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 65 kph, moving northwest at 20 kph. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza, the Tropical Depression is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. Still, Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal number 1 (TCWS) is hoisted in Batanes and the Babuyan Group of Islands.
 
Areas under TCWS will experience rains with gusty winds, making flash floods and landslides possible. Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur will have with light to moderate rains with thunderstorms, while the rest of the country including Metro Manila will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers.
 
 

“Kiko”, the 11th tropical cyclone that developed within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and the first for the month of September, was last located at 345 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora. Classified as a Tropical Depression, it has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of 65 kph.

Moving west-northwest at 15 kph, Kiko is expected to cross Extreme Northern Luzon tomorrow morning and may exit the PAR by evening. As of 8:00 AM today, Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal Number 1 is still up over Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Batanes and the Babuyan Group of Islands.



Due to the Tropical Depression, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Batanes and the Babuyan Group of Islands will experience rains with gusty winds. Cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rains with thunderstorms will affect Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Abra and Kalinga.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon and Western Visayas will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and possible thunderstorms. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers will prevail in the rest of the archipelago.

PAGASA did not issue a gale warning but noted that sea travel is risky int he eastern seaboard of Northern and Central Luzon. Coastal waters in these areas will be moderate to rough.

According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza, the prevailing weather systems expected this month include Tropical Cyclones, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) and Hanging Habagat. These will bring rains and thunderstorms in the affected areas.

Mendoza added that the ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA) may also affect the country, mostly during the absence of a weather disturbance. This will bring fair weather with a very slim chance of rain.

 
 
LPA may develop into a Tropical Depression
 
 
A Low Pressure Area (LPA) still persists within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
 
At 3:00 AM today, the LPA was at 95 kilometers north-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Robert Badrina, the LPA may continue to intensify and develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours. If this happens, the country’s 11th Tropical Cyclone this year will be named “Kiko.”
 
As the LPA prevails, Ilocos Region, Batanes and the Babuyan group of Islands will have moderate to occasionally heavy rains, which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. Metro Manila, Cordillera, Central Luzon, the rest of Cagayan Valley, Mindoro, Cavite, and Batangas will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. The rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies except for isolated light to occasionally heavy rains due to thunderstorms.
 
 
Question of the Day
As the “ber” months set in, Panahon TV Facebook follower Ryan Edward Sol asked: “Should we expect the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan to prevail next month?”
 
According to Badrina, the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat is still expected to prevail until October. Badrina noted that the Amihan begins in November and will be felt in Metro Manila starting December until February.

Storm-free start for August
 
 
After a week of consecutive weather disturbances, the country welcomes August storm-free.
 
According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Meno Mendoza, Tropical Storm Huaning is now outside the Philippine Areas of Responsibility (PAR). After making landfall in mainland China, it has weakened into a Low Pressure Area.
 
However, a tropical cyclone outside PAR continues to enhance the Southwest Monsoon. At 4:00 AM, Typhoon Noru was at 1,760 kilometers east-northeast of Basco, Batanes. It has maximum winds of 170 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of 210 kph. It is not expected to enter PAR but is causing the Southwest Monsoon to affect the western section of Northern and Central Luzon.
 

 
Today, cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms will be experienced in the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera and the provinces of Zambales and Bataan. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms will prevail in Metro Manila and the rest of the country.
 
As Habagat prevails, a gale warning is in effect in the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon including Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, and the northern coasts of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte.
 
 
AUGUST OVERVIEW: 2-4 Tropical Cyclones Ahead
 
This month, weather systems associated with rainy weather will still prevail. These include:
Intertropical Convergence Zone – refers to an area in the atmosphere where clouds are formed from the convergence of winds coming the northern and southern hemispheres. It can be a breeding ground of weather disturbances.
 
Low Pressure Area – an area in the atmosphere with a lower atmospheric pressure than its surroundings. Low pressure areas could usually develop into a tropical cyclone.
 
Tropical Cyclone – The general term for a cyclone or bagyo, this weather disturbance is classified into four depending on its maximum sustained winds: tropical depression, tropical storm, typhoon and super typhoon.
 
Southwest Monsoon – characterized by warm and moist air, the southwest monsoon or Habagat speeds up cloud formation. Once enhanced by a tropical cyclone, the Habagat can bring heavy downpour, which may cause floods in the western section of the country.
 
Ridge of High Pressure Area – an extended part of an anti-cyclone that suppresses cloud formation, causing lesser chance of rains or fair weather condition.
 
Localized Thunderstorms – During warm days, heat speeds up evaporation and creates more clouds, which may dump moderate to heavy rains. Thunderstorms usually occur in the afternoon or evening, and last for one to two hours.
 
Two to four tropical cyclones are expected to develop within or enter PAR, which can hit or miss the country’s landmass.
 

 

 
Frontal system and Habagat bring rains to Luzon
 
 
Rains will prevail in most parts of Luzon on the last Sunday of May 2017.
 
According to PAGASA, the Frontal System is affecting the extreme Northern Luzon, while the Southwest Monsoon dominates the western section of Northern and Central Luzon. Frontal System refers to the boundary of two different air masses. Once this weather system becomes dominant in an area, it will generate convective clouds which will bring thunderstorms. Southwest Monsoon is defined as warm and moist winds moving in a southwest direction. Due to these characteristics, Habagat can cause monsoon rains that can last for a couple of days or even a week
 

As these weather systems prevail today, Ilocos Region, Cordillera and Batanes will experience moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms. Residents of these areas are alerted against flash floods and landslides. In Central Luzon and the rest of Cagayan Valley, light to moderate rains and thunderstorms will be experienced. For the rest of Luzon, down to Visayas and Mindanao, partly cloudy to cloudy skies will prevail, only with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
 
While the present Habagat is categorized as weak, this, along with the Frontal System, has brought significant rainfall to some areas in Luzon. According to PAGASA Weather Forecaster Gener Quitlong, last week’s top three highest rainfall were recorded in these areas;
 
Batanes – 232 millimeters (mm) of rain in 24 hours – May 26, 2017
Calapan – 75.2 mm of rain in 24 hours – May 25, 2017
Casiguran – 76.2 mm of rain in 24 hours – May 24, 2017